Tracking the 2024 Republican Primary
Survey conducted June 2-4, 2023, among 3,545 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points.
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Key Takeaways
DeSantis’ support is stagnant after launch: DeSantis trails Trump by 34 percentage points among GOP primary voters (22% to 56%), similar to his standing before he launched his campaign on May 24. A fourth of potential primary voters reported hearing something negative about DeSantis over the past week, the highest share since tracking began in late November.
Pence, Christie enter the 2024 race with meager support: Former Vice President Mike Pence, who filed paperwork to seek the GOP’s 2024 nod, is backed by 7% of potential Republican primary voters, similar to his standing since tracking began in December. Just 1% of the party’s prospective electorate supports former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie in advance of his campaign launch.
Few primary voters know who Burgum is: Roughly 4 in 5 potential GOP voters (78%) have either never heard of or formed no opinion about North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who is expected to launch a presidential campaign this week.
Tracking Republicans’ 2024 Primary Support Over Time
Data points reflect three-day moving averages of at least 2,476 potential Republican primary voters, with unweighted margins of error of +/-1 to 2 percentage points.
- The bulk of the GOP’s electorate (56%) would back Trump if the primary or caucus were held in their state today, compared with 22% who would support DeSantis.
- Pence is backed by 7% of the party’s electorate, while South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott each have 3% support. Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and Christie have 1% support, respectively.
Second Choices: Where GOP Primary Voters Could Migrate
Survey conducted June 2-4, 2023, among 3,545 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 to 4 percentage points.
- DeSantis is the second choice of 47% of potential GOP primary voters who are backing Trump, while 44% of the Florida governor’s supporters view Trump as their top backup option.
- Pence is the second choice of 14% of Trump supporters and 12% of DeSantis backers.
- Far more of Trump’s supporters (18%) than DeSantis’ (4%) are uncertain about where their loyalties would fall if their first choice weren’t in the race.
How Trump and DeSantis Perform Against Biden in Hypothetical Matchup
Latest survey conducted June 2-4, 2023, among representative samples of roughly 6,000 registered voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage points.
- Hypothetical head-to-head matchups show Biden leading Trump by 2 points and DeSantis by 3 points.
- These numbers may be best considered as a test of electability — a key issue in party primaries that carries all the more significance this time around given concerns about Trump’s baggage and whether the GOP should work to maintain Trump’s coalition or to try to expand its base.=
Tracking the Popularity of Potential 2024 Primary Candidates
Latest survey conducted June 1-4, 2023, among 823 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Net favorability is the share of potential Republican primary voters with favorable views of a candidate or potential candidate minus the share with unfavorable views.
- Trump is popular with 75% of the party’s potential electorate, while 23% view him unfavorably.
- The bulk of the GOP voters (68%) also hold favorable views of DeSantis, while 19% hold unfavorable views,
- Almost 3 in 5 GOP primary voters (57%) view Pence favorably, compared with 32% who view the former vice president unfavorably. Potential GOP primary voters are 9 points more likely to hold unfavorable views than favorable views of Christie (39% to 30%), while 62% haven’t heard of Burgam.
The Buzz About the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary
Latest survey conducted June 1-4, 2023, among 823 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Net buzz is the share of potential Republican primary voters who heard something positive over the previous week about each candidate or potential candidate minus the share who heard something negative.
- Potential Republican primary voters were 19 points more likely to hear something positive than negative about DeSantis (44% to 25%) following his post-announcement campaign swing, down from a 34-point advantage by that metric over the previous week.
- Three in 5 of GOP primary voters heard nothing about Christie in advance of his campaign launch, while 51% said the same of Pence. Almost 9 in 10 (88%) heard nothing about Burgam.
Source of This Data
Methodology
The latest national results on questions pertaining to 2024 Republican presidential primary first choice, second choice and hypothetical general-election matchups reflect surveys conducted June 2-4, 2023. The first- and second-choice results reflect responses among 3,545 potential Republican primary voters. Our sample of potential Republican primary voters includes any registered voter who said they plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary or caucus in their state in 2024.
Potential GOP primary voters who initially said they did not know or had no opinion about which candidate they plan to vote for were asked to pick a candidate they are leaning toward. Results are reported among first choice and those who lean toward a candidate.
The hypothetical general-election results against President Joe Biden reflect responses among a nationally representative sample of more than 5,000 registered voters.
Morning Consult’s reported results among both sets of voters for the aforementioned questions reflect data based on a three-day trailing average. Across all times series, results among potential Republican primary voters have an unweighted margin of error of plus or minus 1 to 2 percentage points, while results among all voters have an unweighted margin of error of 1 percentage point.
Morning Consult conducts daily interviews with a representative sample of roughly 4,000 registered voters in the United States via stratified sampling based on age, gender, and language (English/Spanish). This daily sample is weighted based on age, education, ethnicity, gender, geographic region, home ownership, marital status and 2020 presidential vote history.
Morning Consult’s reported results on questions pertaining to candidate favorability and buzz reflect data gathered on a weekly or biweekly basis among roughly 800 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of 4 percentage points.
About Morning Consult
Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more at morningconsult.com.
Email [email protected] to speak with a member of the Morning Consult team.
Eli Yokley is a senior data reporter at Morning Consult covering politics and campaigns. @eyokley
