Tracking the 2024 Republican Primary
Survey conducted Sept. 28, 2023, among 1,183 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-3 percentage points.
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Key Takeaways
Special post-debate update: Our new survey conducted Thursday found that 63% of potential Republican primary voters support Trump for the GOP’s 2024 presidential nomination, up from 58% in a Morning Consult survey released Monday ahead of the matchup. Trump’s improvement appears to have come from across the spectrum of challengers, but most notably from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose backing fell from 15% to 12%.
All data below reflects surveys conducted Sept. 21-24, 2023. The page will be updated in its entirety on Oct. 2.
Pence’s image is in decline: Former Vice President Mike Pence, who is backed by 6% of the GOP’s prospective electorate, has seen his popularity decline in recent weeks. The latest survey found 45% of potential primary voters view Trump’s former No. 2 unfavorably, matching the share who hold favorable opinions for the first time.
Voters’ perceptions about the GOP: Our annual State of the Parties survey found that voters have become more likely to see the GOP as caring about them since 2016, marking an objective improvement for the party’s brand during Trump’s time on the American political stage. Meanwhile, Democrats have lost Americans’ confidence on questions ranging from ideology to general competence since 2020, even as Biden remains competitive against Trump in our hypothetical head-to-head tracking.
About Morning Consult's Capabilities
Where does this data come from? We survey thousands of U.S. voters every day, enabling daily tracking of nearly 1,200 Republican primary voters ahead of Election Day.
Why survey daily? High-frequency survey research allows us to generate larger sample sizes and shed light on key demographic groups, with more consistency and stability. Scroll below for more on our methodology.
Tracking Republicans’ 2024 Primary Support Over Time
Data points reflect three-day moving averages of at least 2,476 potential Republican primary voters, with unweighted margins of error of +/-1 to 2 percentage points.
- The bulk of the GOP’s electorate (58%) would back Trump if the primary or caucus were held in their state today, while 15% would support DeSantis.
- Vivek Ramaswamy is backed by 9% of the party’s potential voters, followed by Haley (7%), Pence (6%) and Sen. Tim Scott and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who each have 2% support.
- Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum are at 1% in our latest survey, former Texas Rep. Will Hurd has 0% backing.
Second Choices: Where GOP Primary Voters Could Migrate
Survey conducted Sept. 22-24, among 3,552 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 to 5 percentage points.
- DeSantis is the second choice of 33% of potential GOP primary voters who are backing Trump, while 34% of the Florida governor’s supporters view Trump as their top backup option.
- Ramaswamy is the second choice of 25% of Trump supporters and 19% of DeSantis backers.
- 16% of Trump’s supporters, who represent about 10% of all potential GOP primary voters, say they do not know where their loyalties would fall if Trump weren’t in the race.
How Trump and DeSantis Perform Against Biden in Hypothetical Matchup
Latest survey conducted Sept. 22-24, 2023, among representative samples of roughly 6,000 registered voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage points.
- Hypothetical head-to-head matchups show Biden leading Trump by 1 point (43% to 42%), while DeSantis trails by 3 points among the general electorate. Voters are slightly more uncertain about whom they would support or say they would opt for “someone else” when Biden is matched up against DeSantis.
- These numbers may be best considered as a test of electability — a key issue in party primaries that carries all the more significance this time around given concerns about Trump’s baggage and whether the GOP should work to maintain Trump’s coalition or to try to expand its base.
Tracking the Popularity of Potential 2024 Primary Candidates
Latest survey conducted Sept. 21-24, 2023, among 799 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Net favorability is the share of potential Republican primary voters with favorable views of a candidate minus the share with unfavorable views.
- Trump is popular with 76% of the party’s potential electorate, while 22% view him unfavorably, marking a slight improvement from the previous week.
- Pence is seeing a decline in sentiment as his campaign struggles to gain traction nationwide. For the first time in our tracking, the GOP electorate is evenly divided about him, with 45% expressing favorable opinions and 45% expressing unfavorable views.
The Buzz About the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary
Latest survey conducted Sept. 21-24, 2023, among 799 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Net buzz is the share of potential Republican primary voters who heard something positive over the previous week about a candidate minus the share who heard something negative.
- For the first time since mid-July, the GOP’s primary electorate is more likely to report having heard something positive than something negative about Trump, 38% to 34%.
- Roughly half of potential primary voters or more said they haven’t heard anything at all about the nine other Republican presidential candidates, including 49% who weren’t aware of any news about DeSantis.
Source of This Data
Methodology
The latest national results on questions pertaining to 2024 Republican presidential primary first choice, second choice and hypothetical general-election matchups reflect surveys conducted Sept. 22-24, 2023. The first- and second-choice results reflect responses among 3,552 potential Republican primary voters. Our sample of potential Republican primary voters includes any registered voter who said they plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary or caucus in their state in 2024.
Potential Republican primary voters who initially said they did not know or had no opinion about which candidate they plan to vote for were asked to pick a candidate they are leaning toward. The results reflecting each candidate’s 2024 Republican primary support include the responses from these “leaners.”
The hypothetical general election results against President Joe Biden reflect responses among a nationally representative sample of more than 5,000 registered voters.
Morning Consult’s reported results on questions pertaining to candidate favorability and buzz reflect data gathered on a weekly basis among roughly 800 potential Republican primary voters. For more information on our 2024 methodology, see here.
About Morning Consult
Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more at morningconsult.com.
Eli Yokley is Morning Consult’s U.S. politics analyst. Prior to his current role, Eli was Morning Consult’s senior reporter covering U.S. politics. Eli joined Morning Consult in 2016 from Roll Call, where he reported on House and Senate campaigns after five years of covering state-level politics in the Show Me State while studying at the University of Missouri in Columbia, including contributions to The New York Times, Politico and The Daily Beast. Follow him on Twitter @eyokley. Interested in connecting with Eli to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
