Tracking the 2024 Republican Primary
Survey conducted Nov. 24-26, 2023, among 3,944 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points.
Former President Donald Trump began his presidential campaign with the bulk of the Republican electorate behind him, and a number of contenders are looking to put his grip to the test ahead of the 2024 nominating contests. Morning Consult surveys are tracking the Republican primary electorate’s views of Trump and other declared candidates. For our ongoing tracking of the broader contest shaping up between Trump and President Joe Biden, go to our 2024 General Election Tracker.
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Key Takeaways
Trump holds a big lead: Trump leads Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by 50 percentage points among potential GOP primary voters, 64% to 14%. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is in third place with 10% support, tying a record high, followed by entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who has 6% support.
A plurality of non-Trump supporters say he’s their second choice: Roughly 3 in 10 potential GOP primary voters who support someone other than Trump (29%) said the former president would be their second choice. Such voters make up roughly 10% of the GOP’s expected electorate, suggesting that the former president’s support could continue to grow if lower-polling contenders drop their bids.
Many GOP voters tuned out during Thanksgiving: About a third of potential GOP primary voters (32%) said they had not recently seen, read or heard something about Trump, marking his lowest level of news buzz since February. It was worse for other candidates: Half of the party’s potential primary voters said they’d recently heard nothing about DeSantis, followed by Haley and Ramaswamy, both of whom went unnoticed by 57% of the GOP’s expected electorate over the last week.
About Morning Consult's Capabilities
Where does this data come from? We survey thousands of U.S. voters every day, enabling daily tracking of nearly 1,200 Republican primary voters ahead of Election Day.
Why survey daily? High-frequency survey research allows us to generate larger sample sizes and shed light on key demographic groups, with more consistency and stability. Scroll below for more on our methodology.
Tracking Republicans’ 2024 Primary Support Over Time
Data points reflect three-day moving averages of at least 2,476 potential Republican primary voters, with unweighted margins of error of +/-1 to 2 percentage points.
- The bulk of the GOP’s electorate (64%) would back Trump if the primary or caucus were held in their state today, down slightly from a record-high of 67% reached earlier this month. DeSantis, the No. 2 contender, is supported by 14% of potential GOP primary voters.
- Haley is backed by 10% of the party’s potential voters, while Ramaswamy is backed by 6%. They are followed by former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 3%, and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who each have 1% support.
Second Choices: Where GOP Primary Voters Could Migrate
Survey conducted Nov. 24-26, 2023, among 3,944 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 to 3 percentage points for responses shown.
- DeSantis is the second choice of 40% of potential GOP primary voters who are supporting Trump, followed by 22% who would back Ramaswamy and 10% who would back Haley.
- Roughly 3 in 10 potential Republican primary voters (29%) who do not support Trump as their first choice said he is their second choice, followed by 20% who said DeSantis, 16% who said Haley and 12% who said Ramaswamy.
- One in 5 Trump supporters said they do not know where their loyalties would fall if Trump weren’t in the race, compared with 9% of those backing someone other than him.
Tracking the Popularity of Potential 2024 Primary Candidates
Latest survey conducted Nov. 21-24, 2023, among 832 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Net favorability is the share of potential Republican primary voters with favorable views of a candidate minus the share with unfavorable views.
- Trump is popular with 75% of the party’s potential electorate, while 22% view him unfavorably.
- DeSantis has seen a bit of a popularity improvement. Over the past four weeks, his net favorability rating — the share who view him favorably minus the share who view him unfavorably — has increased 13 points, with 67% expressing favorable opinions and 19% expressing unfavorable opinions.
The Buzz About the 2024 Republican Presidential Primary
Latest survey conducted Nov. 21-24, 2023, among 832 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Net buzz is the share of potential Republican primary voters who heard something positive over the previous week about a candidate minus the share who heard something negative.
- Potential GOP voters were far more likely to report having recently heard something positive than negative about Trump (39% to 29%). However, 32% said they hadn’t recently heard anything at all about Trump, marking his lowest level of news buzz since February.
- Amid the holiday week, large chunks of primary voters reported hearing nothing at all about DeSantis (50%), Ramaswamy (57%) and Haley (57%).
Source of This Data
Methodology
The latest national results on questions pertaining to 2024 Republican presidential primary first choice, second choice and hypothetical general-election matchups reflect surveys conducted Nov. 24-26, 2023. The first- and second-choice results reflect responses among 3,944 potential Republican primary voters. Our sample of potential Republican primary voters includes any registered voter who said they plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary or caucus in their state in 2024.
Potential Republican primary voters who initially said they did not know or had no opinion about which candidate they plan to vote for were asked to pick a candidate they are leaning toward. The results reflecting each candidate’s 2024 Republican primary support include the responses from these “leaners.”
Morning Consult’s reported results on questions pertaining to candidate favorability and buzz reflect data gathered on a weekly basis among roughly 800 potential Republican primary voters. For more information on our 2024 methodology, see here.
About Morning Consult
Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more at morningconsult.com.
Eli Yokley is Morning Consult’s U.S. politics analyst. Eli joined Morning Consult in 2016 from Roll Call, where he reported on House and Senate campaigns after five years of covering state-level politics in the Show Me State while studying at the University of Missouri in Columbia, including contributions to The New York Times, Politico and The Daily Beast. Follow him on Twitter @eyokley. Interested in connecting with Eli to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
