U.S.-China Relations Barometer
Against the backdrop of a multiyear trade war, heightened screening of cross-border investments, and persistent tensions over the South China Sea and Taiwan, Morning Consult’s U.S.-China Relations Barometer provides data-driven insights into public perceptions of bilateral relations between the two superpowers, as well as the risks and opportunities that lie ahead for companies and investors. The barometer tracks American and Chinese sentiment on bilateral relations across a variety of domains, including each country’s views of the other, whether they are locked in a cold war, and the likelihood of future military and economic tensions.
Download our latest report for a comprehensive analysis of the state of U.S.-China relations, and sign up for Morning Consult Global for our geopolitical email briefing.
Key Takeaways
Q4 2023 outlook: Chinese sentiment is sending mixed signals ahead of an anticipated meeting between Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping. On the one hand, the share of Chinese adults who view the United States as an enemy or unfriendly (48%) hit a tracking low in October, and the shares who think military and economic tensions are unlikely to escalate in the next 12 months (34% and 25%, respectively) reached tracking highs. But the share who view America unfavorably as of early November (69%) is on an upswing, suggesting limits to Chinese interests in cooling things down.
The U.S. public is more consistently bearish. The share of U.S. adults who view China as an enemy or unfriendly (59%) remains in line with its historical trend, and the shares who forecast escalating military and economic tensions (55% and 63%, respectively) have not dramatically softened since Q3. The share who view China unfavorably (61%) is similarly elevated and trending sideways. Views on whether Washington and Beijing are in a cold war offer a notable point of alignment: The shares in each country who said they are in one remain near tracking highs, at 25% among U.S. adults and 32% among Chinese adults.
Collectively these metrics signal some Chinese buy-in for efforts to stabilize relations, but we expect pessimistic U.S. sentiment and dour forecasts of escalating tensions all around to play spoiler to major improvements. All the more so, heading into the 2024 U.S. election: We expect Biden’s rivals to frame his overtures to China as dovish at a time when majorities of Democrats and Republicans view Beijing with hostility.
Allies or Enemies?
Cold War 2.0, or Something Less?
Projecting a Winner in a War of Attrition
Perceived Likelihood of Escalating Military Tensions
Perceived Likelihood of Escalating Economic Tensions
Source of This Data
Methodology
The U.S.-China Relations Barometer relies on data collected through Morning Consult’s proprietary survey research capabilities. Interviews are conducted online, and data are weighted to approximate representative samples of U.S. and Chinese adults. The U.S. data is weighted based on age, gender, educational attainment, race and region. The China data is weighted based on age, gender, educational attainment and region.
The United States and China country favorability data series are seven-day moving averages of daily data derived from surveys conducted among roughly 11,450 to 27,000 U.S. adults and 670 to 3,400 Chinese adults, with data reported on the first and 15th of each month. The underlying data series for the United States and China have unweighted margins of error of up to 1 percentage point and up to 4 percentage points, respectively. Morning Consult updated its weights for U.S. adults on April 1, 2022, and Jan. 1, 2023, and updated its weights for Chinese adults on Jan. 1, 2023.
All other data series reported in the barometer derive from monthly surveys conducted Feb. 11, 2022-Oct. 6, 2023, in the United States and Feb. 11, 2022-Oct. 7, 2023, in China, among representative samples of approximately 1,000 adults in each country, with unweighted margins of error of +/-3 percentage points.
About Morning Consult
Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more at morningconsult.com.
Jason I. McMann leads geopolitical risk analysis at Morning Consult. He leverages the company’s high-frequency survey data to advise clients on how to integrate geopolitical risk into their decision-making. Jason previously served as head of analytics at GeoQuant (now part of Fitch Solutions). He holds a Ph.D. from Princeton University’s Politics Department. Follow him on Twitter @jimcmann. Interested in connecting with Jason to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
Scott Moskowitz is senior analyst for the Asia-Pacific region at Morning Consult, where he leads geopolitical analysis of China and broader regional issues. Scott holds a Ph.D. in sociology from Princeton University and has years of experience working in and conducting Mandarin-language research on China, with an emphasis on the politics of economic development and consumerism. Follow him on Twitter @ScottyMoskowitz. Interested in connecting with Scott to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].