U.S.-China Relations Tracker
Against the backdrop of a multiyear trade war, heightened screening of cross-border investments, and persistent tensions over the South China Sea and Taiwan, Morning Consult’s U.S.-China Relations Tracker provides data-driven insights into Americans’ perceptions of bilateral relations and their views on key business, regulatory, and policy issues, broken out by party affiliation. The tracker is anchored by Morning Consult's “U.S.-China Fear Gauge,” which provides a holistic measure of Americans’ concern about the trajectory of bilateral relations.
For U.S. and global multinationals, the tracker is intended to help government affairs, public policy, and risk management teams better understand the depth of Americans’ concerns about bilateral relations and their views on key policy issues in order to inform data-driven scenario planning and policy advocacy. For U.S. and global asset managers, the tracker is intended to provide data-driven inputs into investment strategies and facilitate the pricing of risks arising from U.S.-China competition.
The tracker updates quarterly. The latest data is from February 2025.
Key Takeaways
A majority of U.S. adults across the partisan divide remain concerned about the trajectory of U.S.-China relations, per our latest U.S.-China Fear Gauge readings. But concern among Republicans has softened sharply over 2025/YTD, a finding we interpret as signaling confidence in the Trump administration’s efforts to take China to task on trade, fentanyl, and other matters.
Public concerns about bilateral trade relations have meanwhile edged out those about intellectual property theft amid the Trump administration’s new tariff threats targeting China. But compared with earlier years, views of the China tariffs have lost their bipartisan sheen: In the aftermath of the November 2024 elections, Republicans’ support for keeping the existing tariffs on China in place has risen sharply, while Democrats’ support for doing so has fallen.
We see a similar divergence in sentiment when it comes to imposing new tariffs on China: The share of Republicans who support doing so is up by roughly 12 percentage points since September 2024, while the share of Democrats who say the same has fallen by a sizable 17 points over that same time period (covering the longest continuous window over which we’ve tracked the issue). The trend suggests that public attitudes are hardening along partisan lines, with sentiment among Trump’s base unlikely to impose constraints as tariff imposition tentatively moves forward in March (for Canada and Mexico) and April (for global reciprocal tariffs).
Public attitudes on bilateral business operations tell a similar story, with Republicans’ support for complete bans on Chinese companies’ ability to do business stateside rising by 4 percentage points since we last updated this tracker (in November 2024), though a plurality continue to prefer more limited bans tied to national security risks.
Sentiment surrounding limitations on U.S. firms’ ability to do business in China is meanwhile holding steady: We continue to see near-majority support for outbound investment screening notifications, and for selective bans on outbound U.S. investment and exports destined for China when advanced technology is involved.
Given these trends, we advise companies to prepare for further disruptions to U.S.-China trade relations in the coming months, sustained by hawkish Republican sentiment on tariffs specifically. However, we see more limited risk of outright bans targeting U.S. business operations in China, whether via direct investment or exports. For companies concerned about navigating the trade landscape specifically, see our latest guidance here.
Data Downloads
Pro+ subscribers are able to download the datasets that underpin Morning Consult Pro's reports and analysis. Contact us to get access.
U.S.-China Fear Gauge
Morning Consult’s U.S.-China Fear Gauge is a cross-cutting index measuring the degree of Americans’ concerns about the trajectory of bilateral relations. The index is constructed as a simple average of five data series assessing public concern about economic and military tensions, and views of China as an enemy/unfriendly nation, as described in the table below. Trended data for each of the index’s component series is available via the Data Downloads section above.
Index Components and Weights
U.S.-China Fear Gauge: Trends by demographic
Index of Americans’ concerns about the trajectory of U.S.-China relations
Most Pressing Policy Issues
Morning Consult tracks Americans’ views on the most important issues to resolve in bilateral relations on a forward-looking basis. The chart below provides our latest read on Americans’ sense of which issues warrant resolution.
Americans’ assessments of the most pressing policy issues to resolve in bilateral relations
Trade & Tariffs
Morning Consult tracks Americans’ views on trade policy and tariffs involving imports from China on an ongoing basis. The charts below provide our latest read on American sentiment on the matter.
Americans’ support for existing tariffs on China
Americans’ support for imposing new tariffs on China
Inbound Investment
Morning Consult tracks Americans’ sentiment on inbound investment by Chinese firms in the context of prevailing national security concerns on an ongoing basis. The charts below provide our latest read on Americans’ views on the matter.
Americans’ support for banning Chinese companies from doing business in the United States
Americans’ support for banning Chinese companies from owning and/or acquiring U.S. companies
Outbound Investment & Exports
Morning Consult tracks Americans’ views on business and regulatory issues related to outbound investment by U.S. firms and American exports — both destined for China — on an ongoing basis. The charts below provide our latest read on American sentiment on related policy issues.
Americans’ support for outbound investment notification requirements
Americans’ support for banning U.S. companies from investing in China
Americans’ support for banning U.S. companies from exporting to China
Companion Research & Analysis
- U.S. Foreign Policy Tracker: Morning Consult's U.S. Foreign Policy Tracker situates Americans' concerns about U.S.-China relations in the context of other major foreign policy issues. Updates are published quarterly on the same cadence as the U.S.-China Relations Tracker.
- Counter/Consensus Email Briefing: Morning Consult's Counter/Consensus newsletter is a biweekly, publicly available briefing that provides pithy, empirically-grounded forecasts derived from our political data assets, and frequently touches on key issues in U.S.-China relations.
Companion Data Assets for Pro+ Subscribers
- Trended Data: Trended component data for the U.S.-China Fear Gauge and all other data featured in this tracker among select demographics is available for Morning Consult Pro+ subscribers via the “Data Downloads” section of this page. See “Commercial Data Access” below for additional details on access to demographic data beyond that presented in this tracker and companion data file.
Supplementary Commercial Data Access
- All data featured in this tracker derives from a larger monthly tracking survey fielded in the United States and China from February 2022 onwards, with broader topical and demographic coverage available for enterprise or public sector use. Contact us with inquiries regarding commercial access.
Methodology
Data featured in this tracker derives from monthly surveys conducted among representative samples of roughly 1,000 U.S. adults, each with an unweighted margin of error or +/-3 percentage points. The survey began fielding in February 2022 and fields during the first half of the month.
All data was collected through Morning Consult’s proprietary survey research capabilities. All interviews are conducted online. Data is weighted to approximate representative samples of U.S. adults. All references to “Americans” throughout this tracker refer to the aforementioned sample.
Consult our Global Political Intelligence Methodology Primer for additional details on sampling and data collection procedures, weighting and representativeness, margins of error, and question wording for this survey and our broader Political Intelligence data product.
About Morning Consult
Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act. Learn more at morningconsult.com.
Email [email protected] to speak with a member of the Morning Consult team.
Jason I. McMann leads geopolitical risk analysis at Morning Consult. He leverages the company’s high-frequency survey data to advise clients on how to integrate geopolitical risk into their decision-making. Jason previously served as head of analytics at GeoQuant (now part of Fitch Solutions). He holds a Ph.D. from Princeton University’s Politics Department. Follow him on Twitter @jimcmann. Interested in connecting with Jason to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
