Economics
The Economic Outlook for the Holidays
Report summary
Easing inflation, rate cuts and an economy potentially poised to achieve a “soft landing” could be a helper for strong spending this holiday season. But downside risks like a cooling labor market and deteriorating finances for low-income, and to a lesser extent middle-income, households could weigh on consumers’ purchasing behavior.
This holiday season, many consumers are waiting for sales to make their purchases, particularly parents. Electronics and pricey skin and hair care products elicit the most sticker shock, although the latter also leads to more trading down behavior. While some consumers have already purchased their travel for the holiday season, many have considered but opted out due to high prices.
Key Takeaways
- The U.S. economy continues to outperform expectations, but downside risks are present, particularly for more financially vulnerable consumers.
- Many consumers are waiting on sales to make holiday purchases. Sensitivity to prices and cost saving measures vary by categories.
- Some consumers have already purchased their travel for the holiday season, but many have opted out due to high prices.
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Methodology
Morning Consult data featured in this report draws primarily from a survey conducted October 4 - October 9, 2024 among a sample of 2,025 adults. The interviews were conducted online and the data were weighted to approximate a target sample of adults based on age, gender, race, educational attainment, region, gender by age, race by educational attainment, health coverage, Medicare coverage, and SNAP benefit status. Results from the full survey have a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Also included in this report is data from Morning Consult’s U.S. Jobs and Labor Tracker, which have data available to download. Morning Consult Consumer Health Index data is available to download for Morning Consult Intelligence clients through the Intelligence platform.
About the author
Sofia Baig is an economist at decision intelligence company Morning Consult, where she works on descriptive and predictive analysis that leverages Morning Consult’s proprietary high-frequency data. Previously, she worked for the Federal Reserve Board as a quantitative analyst, focusing on topics related to monetary policy and bank stress testing. She received a bachelor’s degree in economics from Pomona College and a master’s degree in mathematics and statistics from Georgetown University.
Follow her on Twitter @_SofiaBaig_For speaking opportunities and booking requests, please email [email protected]
