U.S. Jobs and Labor Tracker
Key Takeaways
In the last two weeks of June, the unemployment index eased, moving from 97.2 in mid-June to 94.7 at the end of the month. The unemployment index remains below the neutral rate of 100. At this time last year, the index stood at 102.1, indicating that joblessness was higher than it is currently.
As the first half of the year comes to an end, the unemployment index, despite its ups and downs, has changed very little compared to the beginning of the year. At the beginning of January, the index stood at 95.1 and it is now at 94.7. The lack of big moves are in line with the Bureau of Labor Statistic's unemployment rate, which was 4.2% in December, briefly moved to 4% in January and stands at 4.2% ahead of the June data release.
For the second half the year, concerns about increasing unemployment rate are rising. The continued claims for unemployment insurance have been on an upward trajectory since May. If this momentum continues and companies remain hesitant to hire due to economic uncertainty, we will likely see unemployment rate rising.
Data Downloads
Pro+ subscribers are able to download the datasets that underpin Morning Consult Pro's reports and analysis. Contact us to get access.
Unemployment Index
Since August 2020, Morning Consult has been gathering daily data on the employment status of U.S. consumers. Although the methodology differs, this survey uses the same definition as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to determine the national unemployment rate. Consequently, Morning Consult’s high-frequency data provides valuable insights into real-time joblessness fluctuations.
The Unemployment Index is designed with ease of interpretation in mind. The index’s base value of 100 is intended to be consistent with a “neutral” (or, in economic terms, natural) unemployment rate. This value would equate to the lowest level of joblessness the economy could theoretically sustain without triggering elevated inflation.
More about the construction of the index and the methodology can be found here.
About the survey:
- Began fielding: Aug. 15, 2020
- Frequency: Daily, typically reported as a 4-week moving average
- Fielding period: 4 a.m. ET to 3 a.m. ET the following day
- Sample size: Over 15,000 adults per day globally (over 5,000 per day in
the United States) - Geographic coverage: Over 40 countries
*Please note that only select demographics are displayed here. Pro+ and MCI clients can download the interactive data files to analyze additional demographics.
Demographic breakout
Job Search Activity
Morning Consult's U.S. Job Search Activity data provides an always-on gauge of the jobs market by asking about job search activity, providing enhanced scale, frequency and depth compared with traditional data sets. The question is asked in over 40 countries, while this chart pack provides data on only the United States.
- Began fielding: Aug. 15, 2020
- Frequency: Daily, typically reported as a 4-week moving average
- Fielding period: 4 a.m. ET to 3 a.m. ET the following day
- Sample size: Over 15,000 adults per day globally (over 5,000 per day in
the United States) - Geographic coverage: Over 40 countries
*Please note that only select demographics are displayed here. Pro+ clients can download the interactive data files to analyze additional demographics.
** This data is part of Morning Consult's daily tracker. MCI clients can access this data on a daily frequency by desired Audience (demographic, psychographic and usage questions), Brand, Economic and Political cuts.
Job Search Activity
Email [email protected] to speak with a member of the Morning Consult team.
