U.S. Jobs and Labor Tracker
Key Takeaways
In the first two weeks of June, the unemployment index rose again, increasing from 95.5 at the end of May to 97.2 in mid-June. Despite this uptick, the unemployment index remains below the neutral rate of 100. At this time last year, the index stood at 102.6, indicating that joblessness was higher than it is currently. That said, compared to last month—especially during the Bureau of Labor Statistics' reference period through the 12th of the month—joblessness has increased.
For prime-age workers (those between the ages of 25 and 54), joblessness continues to decline. However, this trend is mainly driven by prime-age men, whose unemployment level has reached a record low, despite the current frozen labor market. For prime-age women, the picture is the opposite: their unemployment level continues to rise and is quickly approaching the levels seen in 2021.
For individuals with some college education or a high school diploma or less, the unemployment index has risen once again. Among those with some college education, the index is quickly approaching its peak. In contrast, individuals with higher degrees are experiencing a more favorable labor market.
While the unemployment index has remained fairly flat in suburban America, it is rising toward its peak in rural areas. In contrast, the index in urban areas has declined for most of the year and has now stabilized.
Data Downloads
Pro+ subscribers are able to download the datasets that underpin Morning Consult Pro's reports and analysis. Contact us to get access.
Unemployment Index
Since August 2020, Morning Consult has been gathering daily data on the employment status of U.S. consumers. Although the methodology differs, this survey uses the same definition as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to determine the national unemployment rate. Consequently, Morning Consult’s high-frequency data provides valuable insights into real-time joblessness fluctuations.
The Unemployment Index is designed with ease of interpretation in mind. The index’s base value of 100 is intended to be consistent with a “neutral” (or, in economic terms, natural) unemployment rate. This value would equate to the lowest level of joblessness the economy could theoretically sustain without triggering elevated inflation.
More about the construction of the index and the methodology can be found here.
About the survey:
- Began fielding: Aug. 15, 2020
- Frequency: Daily, typically reported as a 4-week moving average
- Fielding period: 4 a.m. ET to 3 a.m. ET the following day
- Sample size: Over 15,000 adults per day globally (over 5,000 per day in
the United States) - Geographic coverage: Over 40 countries
*Please note that only select demographics are displayed here. Pro+ and MCI clients can download the interactive data files to analyze additional demographics.
Demographic breakout
Job Search Activity
Morning Consult's U.S. Job Search Activity data provides an always-on gauge of the jobs market by asking about job search activity, providing enhanced scale, frequency and depth compared with traditional data sets. The question is asked in over 40 countries, while this chart pack provides data on only the United States.
- Began fielding: Aug. 15, 2020
- Frequency: Daily, typically reported as a 4-week moving average
- Fielding period: 4 a.m. ET to 3 a.m. ET the following day
- Sample size: Over 15,000 adults per day globally (over 5,000 per day in
the United States) - Geographic coverage: Over 40 countries
*Please note that only select demographics are displayed here. Pro+ clients can download the interactive data files to analyze additional demographics.
** This data is part of Morning Consult's daily tracker. MCI clients can access this data on a daily frequency by desired Audience (demographic, psychographic and usage questions), Brand, Economic and Political cuts.
Job Search Activity
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