U.S. Inflation and Supply Chains Tracker
Tracker Overview:
Morning Consult developed a novel survey framework to quantify consumers' perceptions and behavioral responses to changes in inflation and supply. From the nationally representative survey responses, we constructed six diffusion indexes monitoring consumer behaviors such as price surprise, walking away from a purchase due to sticker shock, trading down, stockouts, search effort and wait times on deliveries, to gauge demand and supply from a consumer lens.
Interpretation:
The diamonds in the chart above provide the index scores for the current month; they are useful in assessing relative index scores among different products and services. The bars provide category level index score changes compared to the previous month, which can be used to interpret how consumer perceptions and behaviors changed month over month.
The time series charts for each index below show the changes over time. We recommend not only looking at relative index scores but also changes over time - either month over month or current period relative to a designated time period in the past, to capture how consumers are noticing price and supply changes as well as altering their purchasing behavior.
In this video, Morning Consult economists go over the interpretation and use cases of the indexes. More information on each index composition can be accessed below.
Data Access:
Morning Consult collects data on 20 product and service categories within this survey, with demographic breakouts regularly reported across 16 different groups. While this tracker provides visuals on top-line category or index levels, subscribers to MC Pro+ are encouraged to download interactive Excel dashboards to analyze changes over time and compare indexes for different category and demographic groups.
Two sets of data download dashboard files allow users to compare each category's index score among four demographic groups over time or compare two categories' index scores for the selected demographic over time.
Key Takeaways
Excluding housing, the price surprise measure remained relatively stable in November, with an index score of -22.8 compared to -21.9 in October. Movement in the topline index was larger, with consumers experiencing less surprise overall. Compared to October, housing showed the highest change in index scores, followed by new vehicles.
November brought in another increase for the price sensitivity index. The topline index registered higher scores relative to October, indicating that a higher share of consumers were willing to forgo a purchase when faced with higher than expected pricing. Excluding housing, price sensitivity continues to oscillate between an index score of 11 and 12 since August. At a category level, new vehicles and housing had the higher price sensitivity score changes relative to October.
Substitutability declined in November, both for topline and excluding housing. For most nondurable goods, the change compared to October was negative (with the exception of gas), meaning fewer consumers traded down to cheaper alternatives last month.
After an increase in October, purchasing difficulty dropped once again in November, possibly reflecting better conditions after challenges in obtaining goods and services amid hurricanes affecting parts of the U.S.
Data Downloads
Pro+ subscribers are able to download the datasets that underpin Morning Consult Pro's reports and analysis. Contact us to get access.
Price Indicator
Price Surprise
Morning Consult’s Price Surprise Index monitors how often consumers encounter higher-than-expected prices when purchasing goods and services, closely mirroring top-line annual inflation as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Generally, price surprise tends to be negative since consumers usually have an accurate sense of the costs of goods and services. Consequently, a month-over-month increase or decrease in the index reflects consumers' perception of a corresponding change in prices.
- Price Surprise: Net share of consumers reporting higher than expected pricing
- Calculation: Purchased a product or a service for a higher-than-expected price minus purchased for a price close to or below expectations
Price Surprise Index
Demand Indicators
Price Sensitivity
Morning Consult's Price Sensitivity Index, indicative of demand changes in response to inflation, measures the extent to which consumers avoid purchases due to prices exceeding their expectations. A neutral value at the product or service category level indicates an equal proportion of adults walked away from a prospective purchases as the share who proceeded with a purchase despite the higher price. Thus, a higher index figure for a product or service category signifies reduced demand for that product or service.
- Price Sensitivity: Willingness to forgo a purchase when faced with higher-than-expected pricing
- Calculation: Did not purchase because price was too high minus purchased for higher-than-expected price
Price Sensitivity Index
Substitutability
Morning Consult's Substitutability Index measures the "trading down" behaviors of U.S. consumers. A neutral value at the product or service category level indicates equal proportions of adults opted for a lower-priced substitute as those who chose not to purchase. Therefore, a higher substitutability index score for a product or service suggests that consumers are more inclined to trade down as consumers feel pressure to cut costs.
- Substitutability: Willingness to trade down to a cheaper substitute
- Calculation: Purchased lower priced alternative minus did not purchase
Substitutability Index
Supply Indicators
Unavailability
The Unavailability Index measures the difference between the share of adults who said they were unable to purchase a good or service because it was unavailable and the share who said they purchased the good or service. Positive values indicate a good or service was found to be unavailable more often than it was purchased, and negative values mean a greater share of purchases were executed successfully than the share that failed to take place due to stockouts.
- Unavailability: Inability to purchase a product or service
- Calculation: Did not purchase because product/service was unavailable minus purchased for it.
Unavailability Index
Purchasing Difficulty
For each good or service, the index score Purchasing Difficulty Index is calculated by subtracting the share who said they shopped for a given item and did not have trouble finding it from the share who said they looked for this item and did have trouble finding it. Positive values imply the item in question was difficult to obtain more often than not, and negative values mean more consumers found it easily than struggled.
- Purchasing Difficulty: The extent to which buyers experience difficulty obtaining a product or service
- Calculation: Reported difficulty finding certain items minus did not report difficulty finding certain items
Purchasing Difficulty
Delivery Delays
The Delivery Delays Index encompasses only goods ordered online. The index is calculated by subtracting the share of adults who ordered a product online and said it arrived faster than the previous month from the share of those who ordered the same product and said it arrived more slowly than in the previous month. A zero score indicates that equal shares reported slower and faster deliveries, while a positive score denotes a higher share of slower deliveries than faster deliveries and a negative score means more orders arrived faster than took longer to arrive.
- Delivery Delays: When buying a product, the relative timing of delivery compared to the previous month
- Calculation: Deliveries were slower than last month minus deliveries were faster than last month
Delivery Delays
Companion Research & Analysis
Each month the economic analysis team produces a memo examining the recent trends, highlighting the notable changes among select demographics and categories as well as providing an outlook on prices, consumer demand, and supply.
Access the latest analysis on our website, subscribe to Economy and Finance content alerts for update notifications to this tracker and our bi-weekly newsletter Economic Pulse Check for additional context for our analysis.
Methodology
Morning Consult’s Supply Chain and Inflation Survey measures the impact of shortages and rising prices on consumers and their purchasing habits. Each month, respondents are asked questions about which products they are having difficulty procuring, how long they are waiting for deliveries, and how they are responding to supply disruptions and price increases for various goods and services.
More information on index calculation and interpretation can be found here and here. A white paper explaining the links observed between these indexes and spending outcomes can be accessed here.
Consult our methodology document for further information.
- Began fielding: September 2021
- Frequency: Monthly
- Fielding period: Mid-month
- Sample Size: 11,000 adults (between September 2021 and April 2024, sample size was 2,200 adults and in May and June 2024, sample size was 5,500)
Email [email protected] to speak with a member of the Morning Consult team.