Gavin Newsom’s 2028 Support Is Growing

As Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) garners more coverage following the high-profile anti-ICE protests in Los Angeles, our latest hypothetical 2028 primary poll suggests some potential Democratic primary voters are giving him a new look — though former Vice President Kamala Harris maintains the upper hand should she decide to run.

According to our June 13-15 survey of registered voters, 11% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents nationwide would back Newsom if the 2028 presidential primary were held in their state today, up from 5% in March.

Harris, meanwhile, saw a slight decline in backing (from 36% to 34%), alongside a similar dip for former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (from 10% to 7%), who moved into a third-place tie with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), whose own support ticked up from 5% to 7%.

With 4% each, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and business mogul Mark Cuban lead the rest of the potential candidates included in our survey, including: New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker at 3%; Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar at 2% each; Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego and Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman at 1% each. 

(Four other potential candidates — Georgia Sens. Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore — polled at 0%.)

Newsom’s growth in support comes despite almost no change in favorability or name recognition, with ample room for his profile to grow. (He remains lesser known than Harris and Walz, of course, but also Ocasio-Cortez, Booker and Buttigieg.)

Roughly half of Democrats (52%) view him favorably while 14% view him unfavorably, nearly identical to our findings shortly after the November elections. Harris, on the other hand, has retained widespread popularity among Democrats and carries nearly universal name recognition among the electorate. 

The bottom line

While Newsom’s polling bump may prove to be a flash in the pan, it does illustrate the power of earned media and the appetite for a fighter among Democratic voters.

Newsom is one of several Democratic governors believed to be looking at a bid in 2028, but he’s the only one gaining traction at this early stage. (All of the other governors mooted as potential Democratic nominees in 2028 either saw their support stay the same or decline.) 

What’s more, California’s position as the Trump administration’s leading legal opponent should keep Newsom in the headlines into the midterm elections, allowing him a clear perch to continue to grow his national profile.

Nonetheless, our survey also reinforces that it’s his in-state rival, Harris, who remains the front-runner should she choose to run. After all, her 34% of support puts her in a stronger position than Joe Biden was at a similarly early point in the 2020 cycle.