U.S. Consumer Confidence Tracker
Each day, Morning Consult surveys thousands of U.S. consumers on their views regarding personal finances and business conditions, providing an unparalleled gauge of consumer sentiment in real-time.
During this period of heightened economic uncertainty, Morning Consult will be updating this page weekly (in addition to our normal monthly updates available in the Global Consumer Confidence Dashboard).
Key Takeaways
- The Index of Consumer Sentiment continues its downward correction: The correction in the ICS (daily, five- day moving average) that began on June 8th continued last week. On June 16th, the ICS stood at 100 and today it is at 96.8. Although it remains higher than the recent lows of April, it is quickly headed in that direction.
- All five underlying indexes declined: All the indexes that make up the ICS dropped last week. The declines were slightly sharper for business conditions indexes (both one year out and five year out). The drops in sentiment were broad-based but some declines were more notable. Compared to last Monday, the ICS of Republicans fell from 131.5 to 124.8 (5-day moving average, daily figures). Among the different ethnicities, the drop was also large for Hispanics.
The reason for the decline is likely to be geopolitical events: On the economics front, last week brought lower-than-expected retail sales figures (although the control group remained strong). As expected, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. Although there was additional negative news on the housing front as well as from the Philadelphia Fed, what most likely drove down sentiment was the escalating military conflict between Israel and Iran and concerns about potential broader regional involvement. Although so far, stock markets have not dropped sharply and oil prices have not spiked, the conflict has made the anxious U.S. consumer more pessimistic.
- This week will also bring the Conference Board and the University of Michigan releases for June. Considering the recent downturn in Morning Consult's ICS, we expect some downward revisions on the final results for these indexes as well.
Data Downloads
The following chart book is available to all Morning Consult Pro subscribers.
Reading this data
Higher numbers indicate greater consumer confidence. In order to gauge consumer sentiment, Morning Consult asks five questions relating to personal finances and business conditions in the country as a whole. The results from those five questions are then inputted into Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS).
Index Calculations
Underlying views on personal finances and business conditions
ICS by demographics
Additional demographics
Methodology
Consult our methodology document for additional details on sampling and data collection procedures.
About Morning Consult
Morning Consult is a global decision intelligence company changing how modern leaders make smarter, faster, better decisions. The company pairs its proprietary high-frequency data with applied artificial intelligence to better inform decisions on what people think and how they will act.
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