Business Must Carefully Navigate Views on Immigration in Trump’s America

Corporate America is watching immigration trends under the new administration with an eye toward overall labor supply. Foreign-born workers make up 18.6% of the U.S. labor force according to official statistics, and are overrepresented at the lower end of the income distribution in industries like construction, service occupations, transportation and natural resources. But highly skilled immigrants punch above their weight in industries like tech, via the H1-B visa program. 

Trump’s immigration crackdown will have a direct impact on the labor supply— by affecting the actual number of migrants who are removed from or who cannot enter the country — but there will also be second-order effects of discouraging additional migration, both legal and illegal, and driving illegal immigrants deeper into the shadows. 

Americans think legal immigrants strengthen the country

Ironically, Americans across the income spectrum believe that immigrants strengthen the country. Wealthier Americans are even more convinced of this fact than their lower income compatriots. 

But a plurality (40%) of U.S. adults think Washington has gone too far in welcoming new migrants, and oppose additional migration. Another 1 in 4 Americans thinks the current level of migration is about right, while only 18% think the country should accept more immigrants. Much of this opposition appears to be driven by perceptions of illegal migration: A majority of Americans says illegal migration is a major problem. There are also big splits in the kinds of immigrants viewed as desirable. 

Skilled workers are more welcome

Americans across all income levels are the least opposed to welcoming more high-skilled workers, and are most opposed to welcoming more low-skilled workers. Temporary workers across the skill spectrum are slightly less unpopular than their permanent counterparts, but not to a large degree. One might think that lower income U.S. workers would be opposed to low-skilled immigrants due to perceived competition for jobs, while high-skilled workers would hold the opposite view. That is not the case: At the moment, lower income U.S. adults are consistently less sure of their views on immigration than their more well-off peers, and are slightly less likely to say that too many are allowed to enter the U.S. workforce.

Trump’s immigration moves are popular

On balance, Americans approve of Trump’s job on immigration and border control, including deporting illegal immigrants (53%), reinstating the “remain in Mexico” policy (55%), and holding migrants temporarily at Guantánamo Bay (41%). They are less in favor of deporting so-called “Dreamers,” or immigrants brought to the United States as minors but who are now adults, and deporting current minors in the United States illegally. Though U.S. adults have in general become more likely to support deportations in recent months.

Trump’s policies have had a chilling effect. For one, border apprehensions have dropped steeply since he took office despite increased resources funneled to border security. There is an element of seasonality to border apprehensions, with colder months like January and February typically being less popular for border crossings, but the number of apprehensions in 2025 so far is much lower even compared to similar periods in recent years. 

The Mexico factor

Mexico is the top origin country for new arrivals to the United States, and many other nationalities attempting to immigrate illegally do so via the southern border. This makes illegal crossings via the southwest border a major source of labor for the U.S. economy, especially when it comes to unskilled and seasonal work. A resulting decline in the supply of illegal workers should have an effect on overall wages. 

The chilling effect can also be seen qualitatively. We asked Mexicans who themselves immigrated to the United States, or who knew someone who had immigrated, whether doing so was the right decision. Of the 36% who said no, the most-cited reasons were economic concerns, followed by the risk of deportation and discrimination. The perception that deportation risk has recently increased was clear, with several respondents mentioning the U.S. president or current political climate in their concerns. The political element was also present in perceptions that discrimination has increased, and 9% specifically cited the current political situation. To be sure, nearly one third of respondents cite assorted other reasons, such as comparable opportunity in Mexico or patriotic sentiment, suggesting a variety of other factors are also at play. But the presence of the current political moment in respondents’ comments is striking.

While this qualitative data on perceptions of the current climate for migrants is limited to Mexico, the cooling effect we see there is likely to be mirrored in other migrant source countries. This will amplify the effect of policies seeking to deter immigration, as well as the impact on corporate America via labor supply and wages.

Immigration will continue to see a Trump slump

U.S. adults give President Trump high marks for his handling of immigration. They also think the GOP has done a better job of handling the issue historically. As such, we see only green lights for the administration to continue its tough enforcement policy and rhetoric. The United States' struggling global reputation is also likely to deter some legal migrants. During the last Trump administration, the United States received fewer legal migrants than during the intervening Biden years. It’s harder to determine whether illegal migration declined during Trump’s first term, but border apprehensions would suggest it did. As such, we foresee a continuation of lower levels of immigration to the United States for the next four years. 

Business has a better chance of making a case for skilled immigration

While Trump and the electorate appear to be mostly on the same page when it comes to unskilled labor, on highly skilled immigrants, the public is more accepting. Nevertheless, the current administration's approach to the H-1B visa program has introduced changes that may affect the influx of highly skilled immigrants, hitting the tech sector particularly hard. The Department of Homeland Security announced a final rule effective Jan. 17, 2025, aimed at modernizing the H-1B program. But some business immigration lawyers have expressed concerns that these changes may increase difficulties for highly skilled immigrants, leading some to consider alternative destinations like Canada. The uncertainty surrounding immigration policies and the potential for increased scrutiny may make the United States less attractive to top talent, potentially impacting industries that rely heavily on skilled foreign workers. 

In December 2024, tensions emerged within the MAGA movement regarding immigration policies, particularly concerning the H-1B visa program. Elon Musk, a naturalized U.S. citizen and tech CEO, advocated for increasing the admission of highly skilled foreign workers, emphasizing a "permanent shortage of excellent engineering talent" and warning that without access to global talent, competitors would benefit. This split shows some daylight between parts of the Trump camp, and our data on public opinion shows there is room for industry to make a case that Americans are tolerant of selective immigration of skilled workers.

Here, the consumer effects are worth noting: With U.S. tariffs and the cost of many consumer goods potentially set to increase dramatically in the coming weeks, labor shortages could compound the impact on consumers’ pocketbooks if producers increase prices to offset wage increases (though low-wage consumers whose wages increase would arguably benefit). But the Trump administration has shown little appetite to back down from policies that could raise prices for consumers (like tariffs on automobiles and other products), so we think companies saddled with low-skilled labor shortages are unlikely to find the administration receptive to price-related narratives on this front.

Where does this leave corporate America? For companies requiring high-skilled immigrant pools, like U.S. tech companies, our data suggests opportunities may exist to nudge the administration to preserve some access to them, whether on a temporary basis for speciality fields or on a longer-term basis. On the reputational front, highlighting a growing risk of U.S. brain drain to Europe for certain scientific fields could also help to make the case. But sectors dependent on low-skilled immigration — such as agriculture or services more broadly — will likely face greater challenges in convincing the administration to change tack.