Why the Senate’s Reconciliation Plan Looks Like the GOP’s Best Option

As Senate and House Republicans work to advance the GOP’s domestic legislative agenda that includes energy, immigration and tax policy issues, those caucuses are divided over whether to prioritize some issues first or package everything in what President Donald Trump has described as “one big, beautiful bill.”

If voters had their way, Morning Consult’s weekly tracking of public opinion on Trump’s Washington suggests tax cuts would not be first out the gate. That lends some credence to the Senate GOP leadership’s preference for two budget reconciliation packages — the first for tackling immigration and energy policy and the second, coming later on, to focus on taxes — instead of House Republicans’ push to address all three priorities in one sweeping reconciliation package.

According to our latest survey, just 26% of voters said extending tax cuts for businesses and individuals should be a “top priority,” making it among the least-prioritized items for the electorate. At the same time, 36% believe the extension of these cuts is a top priority for the Trump administration, leaving public perceptions of what Washington is doing out of whack with voters’ priorities.

Meanwhile, nearly twice as many voters (46%) say that stopping illegal immigration across the U.S.-Mexico border should be a top priority for the Trump administration.

Republican voters, who carry serious sway given the party’s governing trifecta and penchant for tolerating messy primaries, are more likely than the average voter to prioritize tax cuts, but they too are far more likely to prioritize stopping illegal immigration. 

The bottom line

That considerably more voters are focused on immigration than tax policy, and that the Republican Party enjoys larger trust advantages over Democrats on the former than the latter, as our ongoing tracking shows, is a strong point in favor of the Senate GOP’s preferred approach.

But while Senate Republicans believe there is ample time in the calendar to address tax policy later ahead of the scheduled expiration of the party’s 2017 tax cuts on individuals in 2025, House Republicans argue that a piecemeal approach runs the risk of failure. Without border or energy provisions in the package to entice wayward Republicans, the votes to address tax policy might not be there in the House.

From that perspective, the so-called one big beautiful bill could also make for a savvy play with voters: Linking policy action on voters’ higher and lower priorities could help neutralize Democratic messaging against, and media scrutiny of, the bill’s tax components.

But the risk of that approach is already on display. Almost all of the media coverage of Republicans’ work on the reconciliation process has focused on infighting over tax policy, with the lack of consensus in the House a key reason the Senate is pressing their own timeline.

As our annual State of the Parties report showed last year, the GOP’s success in 2024 was built on improved perceptions of their ability to govern. Unless House Republicans can resolve their differences on tax policy in short order, they’ll need to defer to the Senate if they’re going to maintain that trust among voters ahead of a tough 2026 campaign.