Consumer Sentiment Trended Upward in Majority of the Countries Tracked in 2024

Winners and losers of 2024

To get a sense of where consumer sentiment stands as we begin the new year, we examine the 2024 data and highlight which countries have performed better than others.

Morning Consult surveys thousands of consumers every day in 43 countries across the globe on their views regarding personal finances and business conditions, providing an unparalleled gauge of consumer sentiment globally in real-time. The topline consumer sentiment index is composed of five questions: two of them are about personal finances (current and 12 month outlook), one of them is about current buying conditions and the remaining two are about business conditions (12-month and 5 year outlook).

For ease of interpretation, response data for each question is turned into an index using their subsequent positive and negative values. The topline Index of Consumer Sentiment is calculated by taking a simple average of the five individual indexes. 

For this analysis, monthly averages have been calculated using the daily data. We compare the average for January 2024 against December 2024. Over the past year, 25 countries saw an increase in their consumer sentiment indexes, while the other 18 experienced declines.

Top three winners:

Better days ahead: Although Argentina’s economic woes are not over, its consumer sentiment soared in 2024, moving from 83.1 (average for January) to 108.8 (average for December). President Milei remains one of the most popular leaders among the 25 tracked by Morning Consult. His popularity rose in the fourth quarter, paralleling the steeper increase seen in the topline consumer sentiment index. The healthy growth in both indexes reflect not only the third quarter’s positive GDP growth but also the positive outlook for 2025 as Argentina leaves its recession behind.

Steady as she goes: Vietnam is the second in line for the biggest gain of 2024. Its index score for topline consumer sentiment rose from 123.7 to 142.2 from January to December. Unlike other economies where there was monthly volatility (in both directions) Vietnam posted an increase almost each month. Although December’s value was not the highest ever monthly average for Vietnam, it has squarely left behind the doldrums of 2023.

Up and up: Another country moving past its challenging economic days: Norway. Third in line for the biggest gains for 2024, Norway’s topline index of consumer sentiment rose from 70.1 in January to 84.0 in December. Unlike Vietnam, Norway experienced quite a bit of monthly volatility. That said, after exceeding growth expectations in the third quarter, Norway’s consumer sentiment rose 9% month over month in December; on par with Argentina’s  growth rate. 

Top three losers: 

Plummeting down to Earth: The only double digit drop in sentiment belongs to Brazil with its topline consumer sentiment index moving from 122.8 in January to 111.7 in December. Although there is intra-month volatility, there is also a clear downward movement from January to mid year, a few months of stabilization and a nose-dive at the end of December. The large drop in the final weeks of December is mostly tied to investor backlash to fiscal deficit, which was followed by the plummeting Brazilian real and its central bank raising interest rates by 100 basis points. Brazilian sentiment ended the year at a fresh low, which was last seen June 2022.

A V and a U recovery: While we tend to use one letter of the alphabet to describe economic recoveries, Nigeria’s path in 2024 was a clear V and a U. Nigeria started the year strong but consumer sentiment sharply dropped. By the end of April, it had surpassed its high of January but subsequently began falling again. Higher than expected growth for the third quarter (driven by the services sector) spurred sentiment up in the last three months of the year. Despite the increases, Nigeria’s consumer sentiment starts the new year lower than where it was at the beginning of 2024.  

Spiraling downward: Third in the list: the Philippines. Although the drop from January to December is not as large (8 points), what sets the Philippines apart from the others in the list is consistency. With the exception of January, topline consumer sentiment dropped every month (month over month percent change) in 2024. This clear downward trend brought on the lowest monthly average recorded (November:118.1)  since tracking began at the end of 2021. Extreme weather affecting the country’s GDP places the Philippines’ consumer sentiment at a low point to recover from as we enter 2025.