Democratic Voters Remain Divided Over Ditching Biden

As Democratic officials in Washington continue to hem and haw on a pressure campaign to remove President Joe Biden from the top of the ticket following his disconcerting debate performance late last month, a new Morning Consult survey shows the party’s voters remain similarly ambivalent.

According to the July 15 survey, 48% of Democratic voters say Biden should be replaced as Democratic presidential nominee, compared with 43% who say he should not be. The figures are almost identical to what we gauged immediately after the debate, when 47% said he should be replaced and 41% disagreed.

Discussion about Biden’s viability among Democrats in Washington has not been limited to voters who identify as Democratic. Many also harbor concerns about Biden’s standing with voters who are young, Black or Hispanic — worries that are somewhat validated by our survey trends.

Black and Hispanic voters, for example, are increasingly likely to say Biden should be replaced at the top of the ticket, and two-thirds of 18- to 34-year-olds agree, as they did in the aftermath of Biden’s debate performance.

Having said that, it’s not apparent that the most obvious choice to replace Biden were he to step aside, Vice President Kamala Harris, would provide much of a boost to Democrats’ chances in November — especially among these groups.

In head-to-head tests against Trump, both Biden and Harris trail the former president by 1 percentage point, with similarly thin margins among America’s youngest eligible voters.

Harris also performs similarly to Biden among Black voters and Hispanic voters, though slightly more of the latter were more likely to be undecided in a matchup pitting her against Trump.

What it means for the top of the ticket

It’s clear that Biden has not done enough since the debate to assuage concerns from Democrats on Capitol Hill, who have gone public with calls for him to exit the race in increasing numbers. Meanwhile, Democratic voters themselves are essentially in the same place they were immediately after the debate. 

Whether more of these voters get on board with replacing Biden or decide he should stay in the driver’s seat may well depend on how many more of the party’s leaders are willing to risk a fight with the White House and go public with their push to get Biden out of the race.

For lawmakers and advocates on both sides of this internal debate who are looking for clear signals from the electorate about what to do next, polls like this one are not going to make their decisions any easier for them.