Trump’s Approval Rating Plummets Among Medicaid Recipients

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Earlier this year, Trump-aligned commentators such as Steve Bannon were quick to warn Republicans about the political repercussions of moving forward with deep Medicaid cuts in what ultimately became the party’s so-called One Big Beautiful Bill Act. 

Bannon lost that argument with GOP leadership in Congress, but as our data shows, the president’s tumbling approval rating among Medicaid recipients, a group he narrowly won in 2024, proves the MAGA firebrand right about those repercussions.

Weekly trends from Morning Consult’s daily tracking of U.S. adults’ perceptions of Trump’s job performance illustrate how Medicaid recipients’ antipathy for the president began to accelerate in mid-March, when it became apparent that House Republicans were seriously considering steep Medicaid cuts to help pay for their priorities. The president’s net negative approval rating among these Medicaid beneficiaries continued to balloon as Republicans went on to pass their bill in early July, where it has since remained. 

The trends amount to a sea change in Medicaid recipients’ views on Trump. When he took office, 52% of them approved and 34% disapproved of his job performance, compared with 53% and 37% of all U.S. adults, respectively. Fast forward to surveys conducted among 3,134 Medicaid respondents this week, and those ratings have effectively reversed, with 36%  approving and 55% disapproving. (Among all U.S. adults, currently 44% approve and 50% disapprove of the president.) 

Breaking things down by partisanship, the data also suggests erosion among independents and Republicans is responsible for the shift.

At the start of Trump’s term, his net approval rating was similar among independents and Republicans who were on Medicaid and those who weren’t. But that’s changed in recent months, especially among Republicans.

Currently, 80% of Republicans on Medicaid approve of Trump’s job performance, compared with 86% who aren’t. His disapproval rating among the former group is also a few points higher than in the latter groups (17% vs. 12%).

The bottom line

The biggest political question facing the Republican Party ahead of the next couple of election cycles is whether it can consolidate gains made in recent years among lower-income Americans. In the wake of those Medicaid cuts, that sure looks like a very steep climb.