Germany Divided: Policy Polarization Belies Centrist Self-Image

The German people have spoken. And unlike other recent elections, they didn’t have very much surprising to say, with results largely conforming to pre-election polling. The center-right union of the CDU and CSU came out as the party with the largest vote share at 28.5%, far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) had a good night — as expected, doubling its vote share compared to the previous general elections — and the members of Scholz’s defunct traffic light coalition (center-left SPD, the Greens, and the FDP) all lost ground. The far left did have a stronger than expected showing, mirroring France where voters seemed generally to migrate away from center-left incumbents.  

The stigma against self-identifying as far-right holds strong despite AfD’s growing vote share

But for an election in which voters very clearly shifted right, the country’s Nazi history still makes Germans exceedingly hesitant to self-identify as far right. On a 1-7 scale measuring left-right political ideology, only 3% of German adults claim far-right ideology, while 20% of voters chose AfD at the ballot box, a party that ranks 8.8 out of 10 on Parlgov’s scale of european party ideology, and which Germany’s domestic intelligence agency placed under surveillance for suspected extremism. By comparison, 21% of French adults are willing to say their views are on the right-wing extreme of the scale. 

Furthermore, even voters who told Morning Consult in the leadup to the election that they planned to vote for the AfD generally classified themselves as center right, roughly corresponding to a  5 or 6 on our political ideology scale. Only 15% of self-identified AfD voters said they were on the far right. 

Looking at this ideological party spread also makes something else clear: the CDU/CSU will need to reach across the political centerpoint to form a governing coalition. Specifically, it will need to form a coalition with the center-left SPD, either with or without the Greens (CDU/CSU leadership has said they will not form a coalition with Alternative for Germany).

The stigma does not extend to holding right-wing policy views

But while very few Germans say they hold far-right or far-left views, their actual opinions on social and economic issues are much more polarized across issues than in France, for example. 

The center-left SPD and the Greens want to raise the minimum wage and raise taxes on the wealthy, and in our data we see that left-of-center Germans support wage equality and worker protections at much higher rates than right-of-center Germans. Both parties (and public opinion) are closer together on economic nationalism issues like favoring German-made goods and supporting tariffs. The failure of the libertarian FPD party to cross the threshold into the Bundestag for the first time since 2013 makes more nationalist economic policies even more likely. This could exert additional pressure on the trans-Atlantic alliance as a more assertive Germany might push back more strongly against Trump in the looming trade war, and even on security matters. The country’s incoming chancellor, Friedrich Merz, should also have freer rein to pursue a more China-skeptical policy than in the past in coordination with the European Commission. 

Environmental and social issues will prove to be an even tougher circle to square. SPD voters are overwhelmingly left of center, and as such are much more likely to value cultural, gender and racial diversity when compared to center-right Germans. They also are much more willing to make tradeoffs to ensure environmental protection. If the Greens join the coalition, that gap will be even more important. 

While there is a sizable gap between the left and right on immigration, it is smaller than other divides and there is generally very low support for additional immigration and high support for integration of existing immigrants, making it more likely that more restrictive immigration and asylum policies will be easier to push through. 

A slender silver lining for beleaguered centrists

Incumbents have had a bad run of it over the last few years. But a faint silver lining appears to be stabilizing trust in government and optimism in countries that have booted their leaders out. 

Much of the coverage of Germany’s election has focused on the strong result by the AfD and the threat this could pose in future elections. While the AfD certainly has an eye on making additional future gains, Merz’s CDU voters share many of AfD’s views on topics like immigration and economic nationalism, leaving an opening for the new government to address many of the grievances that have fueled AfD’s rise. If they can do so and regain public confidence, they may be able to make sure that the historical stigma Germans hold against claiming far right views is true in fact and not just in theory.