Global Confidence Bounces Higher Moving Into 2023 (Report Preview)

In early 2023, falling inflation and related expectations should support stronger global consumer sentiment, but a potential rise in global unemployment later this year will likely weigh on confidence even as inflation cools
Getty Images / Morning Consult artwork by Ashley Berry
January 13, 2023 at 5:00 am UTC

Key Takeaways

  • In December, the GDP-weighted measure of the Index of Consumer Sentiment rose 1.8%. Consumer sentiment increased in 31 of the 43 countries tracked by Morning Consult.

  • In the United States, decelerating inflation and low unemployment buoyed consumer confidence moving into the new year. 

  • Sentiment rebounded across much of Europe, aided by a decline in energy prices that has helped to bring down the pace of inflation. 

  • In China, sentiment rebounded in the last weeks of December despite a surge in COVID-19 cases. However, confidence remains weak as Beijing begins to unwind COVID-zero policies.

This memo offers a preview of Morning Consult’s January Global Consumer Confidence Report. Morning Consult Economic Intelligence subscribers can access the full report here.

For full access to Morning Consult's consumer confidence data, see our listing on the Snowflake Data Marketplace.

A deceleration in the pace of inflation across much of the world has helped lift global consumer sentiment from recent lows. Falling energy prices and monetary policy tightening have combined to bring down price growth. However, the strong policy action taken by central banks across the globe will also dampen demand moving into 2023, with much of the global economy headed for a slowdown.

Germany experienced the largest increase in consumer confidence from November to December, with the Morning Consult Germany Index of Consumer Sentiment rising 11.4%. A general deceleration in inflation across Europe has helped to lift the ICS in 13 of the 16 European countries tracked by Morning Consult. 

In the United States, consumer sentiment rose in all five of the components that make up the index, underscoring the breadth of the recovery in confidence in December. Despite a bounce back in recent weeks, the Morning Consult China Index of Consumer Sentiment reached the end of 2022 down 10.9% from where it started on Jan. 1. 

Confidence Bounces Higher in Europe and the Americas

Morning Consult Index of Consumer Sentiment
Monthly % change (November to December)
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Source: Morning Consult Economic Intelligence

About this report

Morning Consult’s monthly Global Consumer Confidence Report provides a comprehensive assessment of the economic views and expectations of consumers across major global economies.

Businesses and investors rely on this report to understand emerging trends in consumer demand and personal finances.

The report draws on Morning Consult Economic Intelligence, a high-frequency data set reflecting more than 17,000 daily economic surveys across the world’s 43 largest economies.

While the data in this report is primarily presented as a monthly average, the underlying data is collected, processed and reported daily as part of Morning Consult Economic Intelligence. 

Full methodology and average daily sample sizes per country can be found here.

A headshot photograph of John Leer
John Leer
Chief Economist

John Leer leads Morning Consult’s global economic research, overseeing the company’s economic data collection, validation and analysis. He is an authority on the effects of consumer preferences, expectations and experiences on purchasing patterns, prices and employment.

John continues to advance scholarship in the field of economics, recently partnering with researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland to design a new approach to measuring consumers’ inflation expectations.

This novel approach, now known as the Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations measure, leverages Morning Consult’s high-frequency survey data to capture unique insights into consumers’ expectations for future inflation.

Prior to Morning Consult, John worked for Promontory Financial Group, offering strategic solutions to financial services firms on matters including credit risk modeling and management, corporate governance, and compliance risk management.

He earned a bachelor’s degree in economics and philosophy with honors from Georgetown University and a master’s degree in economics and management studies (MEMS) from Humboldt University in Berlin. 

His analysis has been cited in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, The Washington Post, The Economist and more.

Follow him on Twitter @JohnCLeer. For speaking opportunities and booking requests, please email [email protected]

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Jesse Wheeler
Senior Economist

Jesse Wheeler previously worked at Morning Consult as a senior economist.

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