Global Consumer Sentiment: September 2024 edition

Among the Asian economies tracked by Morning Consult, changes in consumer sentiment were split down the middle in August. In six of the twelve countries, consumer sentiment increased last month, while in the remaining economies, index scores fell. Thailand, once again, had one of the largest consumer sentiment drops for the region. Although compared to last year, consumer sentiment changes trail behind Australia’s, Thailand’s political turmoil spurred by the dismissal of its prime minister likely drove down consumer sentiment recently. The country now has a new prime minister and key positions of the cabinet are getting selected at the beginning of September. Although there was a slight bounce back in the daily data at the end of August, it is too soon to tell if the new leadership will be able to lift the mood of consumers, who encounter a weaker economy, large debt burdens and a high cost of living. Australia’s consumer sentiment, on the other hand, showed some improvement last month. However, in year over year terms, it is the biggest loser in the region, driven mostly by the drop observed at the tail end of May. Looking at the most recent figures, the Australian economy also remains weak, having just posted the slowest growth since the 1990s. The freshest government economic data coming out does not support a full-fledged recovery for September.

Unlike last month, the monthly changes in Europe’s consumer sentiment show a more mixed outlook. Consumer sentiment dropped in 8 countries and rose in the remaining 8. The biggest gain for the region was for France, which hosted the Olympics last month. In year over year terms, almost all of Europe benefits from base effects: Despite last month’s drop, sentiment has generally been rising in the continent for most of 2024, bringing up the year over year comparisons to a positive territory. The only exception is Switzerland, where we note a year over year drop, which is driven by the fact that this year’s data is compared to a peak historical value last year. In August 2023, Swiss consumer sentiment reached its highest level before dropping during most of the fourth quarter last year. Consumer sentiment continues to reverse lower in the U.K. as highlighted in last month’s review.

There are more reds than greens for monthly changes in consumer sentiment for the Middle East and North Africa region. Unfortunately, the magnitude of declines are generally larger than last month as well. Consumer sentiment in Turkey and Nigeria dropped once again, similar to last month. In August, sentiment also dropped in Egypt, Israel and South Africa. Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates registered slight increases. These two countries had relatively stable readings so far this year, especially compared to their counterparts in the region.

Sentiment in North and South America generally improved in August, with the exception of Argentina, Canada and Mexico. In year over year terms, Argentina remains the winner in the region, however, the tide seems to have turned with consumer sentiment. A look at the daily data shows that consumer sentiment–which has generally been on an upward trend– peaked in late July and has been coming down since then. By many measures, the economy is not performing well in Argentina. Although President Milei noted that “Argentina is at a turning point” during his Independence speech on July 9, 2024, so far Argentinians seem to note that the turn is in the wrong direction.