How High-Income Consumers’ Restaurant Behaviors are Evolving
Key Takeaways
Around 2 in 5 (41%) of high-income consumers go to a restaurant at least once a week, down 2 percentage points since the beginning of 2024.
As economic concerns linger, high earners have become more likely to seek cheaper restaurant options or forego purchases.
High earners are scaling back all restaurant activity including takeout and delivery, while the general population has held mostly steady.
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From Michelin stars to McMuffins, diners have plenty of options when it comes to getting a meal at a restaurant. And with restaurant sales soaring past $1.1 trillion in 2024, it’s clear that demand in the category remains strong. But rising menu prices and cost concerns on the consumer side may be warning flags for the coming year. In order to maintain momentum, restaurants must understand the behaviors of their most frequent customers: high-income consumers.
Fewer high-earners are getting food from restaurants weekly
Going to a grocery store is the most common way high-income consumers purchase food, but the share who do so weekly has declined slightly throughout the year, falling 7 points from 83% in January.
In the same time period, after a rise in the first half of the year, the share of high earners who go to a restaurant at least once has declined slightly overall, now 2 points less than it was in January of 2024. While that still outpaces the general public (31% of all U.S. adults said they go to a restaurant at least once a week in December), the decline among this key audience is concerning for the industry.
Restaurant engagement is declining among high earners
Accordingly, the restaurant industry did not have the rosiest outlook in 2024, with Technomic cutting its sales forecast in the middle of the year. Among high earners, this shift may be rooted in a combination of fewer visits to restaurants and reining in spending when they do go out to eat.
High-income consumers are growing more discerning about restaurant spending
As 2024 began, Morning Consult’s Consumer Purchasing Power Barometer (a single combined index of changes in consumer purchasing power) for restaurants was slightly in the positive for all groups aside from low-income households. In the early months of the year, the income gap widened as high earners exhibited higher price sensitivity (willingness to forego a purchase because of higher-than expected pricing) and substitutability (willingness to trade down to a less-expensive option) both softening. In other words, while low and middle-income consumers were rethinking purchasing food away from home or looking for cheaper options, high-earners were still eating out and spending normally.
High-income consumers are becoming more discerning about restaurant purchases
But even for high earners, the tide began to turn in summer and, in late October, the 3-month rolling average was at the lowest point for this group since measurement began in 2022. It has ticked up slightly since, but is still low compared to the past few years. This is particularly notable as restaurant inflation has dropped significantly — it’s currently at 3.6% compared with a high of 8.8% in March 2023. However this still reflects a heightened level compared to pre-pandemic years. Before 2020, the last time inflation was this high in this category was in 2009 during the Great Recession.
This is not great news for the restaurant industry, as they need high-income households to provide a consistent source of revenue to combat fluctuations from middle and lower-income households, who are typically more likely to cut back discretionary spending due to economic swings. That said, there may be a bright spot as the index was trending upwards slightly into 2025.
Restaurants must take a 360 degree approach to re-engage high-income consumers
While the overall frequency of restaurant visits is dropping amongst high earners, it’s not just dining in that’s declining. The shares of high-income consumers who say they order takeout, use third-party apps like Uber Eats and DoorDash and utilize drive-thrus at least once a month have all declined notably throughout 2024.
These declines are counter to the patterns amongst U.S. adults as a whole. Despite the Consumer Purchasing Power Barometer declines across all income groups, for the general population, the shares who engage with restaurants in all ways have remained relatively steady with no movement outside the margin of error.
High earners have scaled back their restaurant engagement more than others
What this suggests is that restaurants need to take a holistic approach to win back volume from high-income consumers. While certainly in-store visits will certainly drive profits, restaurants can also recapture sales via third party apps, which have historically been used more frequently amongst this group than others.
While these apps have grown in popularity overall, they’re undoubtedly expensive for restaurants and open up the potential for customer service challenges beyond the restaurant’s control. That said, third-party apps often mean incremental customers, and given their historic popularity with high-income consumers, restaurants should continue to leverage them to reach this crucial audience.
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Lindsey Roeschke is an analyst whose work focuses on behavior and expectations of consumers in the travel & hospitality and food & beverage categories, particularly through a generational and cultural lens. Prior to joining Morning Consult, she served as a director of consumer and culture analysis at Gartner. In addition to her research and advisory background, Lindsey has more than a decade of experience in the advertising world. She has lived and worked in seven cities across four continents.
