To Aid Hollywood, Americans Favor Newsom’s Tax Credits Over Trump’s Tariffs

President Donald Trump announced plans last week to impose a 100% tariff on all films produced outside of the United States. It prompted Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) to propose another path — a massive tax subsidy to the industry to try to arrest a decline in domestic movie production in the face of growing incentives from other countries.

A new Morning Consult survey shows the president’s proposal is less popular than the California governor’s, the latest reflection of Americans’ growing skepticism of Trump’s approach on trade.

Just 36% of voters support Trump’s idea of placing a 100% tariff on all films and movies produced outside of the United States, the lowest level of initial support for any tariff we’ve tested. It’s also less than the 46% backing for Newsom’s plan to create a $7.5 billion federal tax credit to incentivize companies to produce more films and movies inside the country, which is fairly popular regardless of partisanship.

If voters had to pick between the two plans to boost Hollywood, Newsom’s plan would also win out, though a good chunk of voters think both would work.

Our survey found that 37% of voters think Newsom’s idea would be more effective to increase domestic film production, compared with 12% who said the same of Trump’s approach. Along with roughly a quarter who are unsure, another 28% — including 42% of Republicans — said both would work equally well.

The bottom line

Voters’ preference for the carrot rather than the stick aligns well with what, as The New York Times reported, the film industry’s top lobbying group pitched to the actor Jon Voight, one of Trump’s “special ambassadors” to Hollywood.

For an industry looking for some help, the good news is that even conservative Americans, who tend to dislike Hollywood, don’t appear to view increasing domestic movie production as a narrow handout for La La Land — they see it as helpful to the country.

A slim majority of voters (51%) are inclined to think boosting Hollywood would be good for the United States, including 62% of Republicans. Similar shares see increases in domestic filmmaking production as beneficial for film set workers and the industry as a whole.

These numbers suggest there may be no better time to clinch a deal to revive America’s movie industry than now. But for Hollywood's advocates looking to get larger buy-in, the survey also makes clear that there is room to grow in a country where states are already fighting to lure production.

Just 1 in 4 voters think a boost to the film industry would help their own communities. Underlining that fact in messages to key lawmakers and their communities could help industry voices enlist more grassroots allies for their advocacy push.