What Do Consumers Think Is the Ideal Black Friday Discount Rate?

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If you spent any time on social media after Thanksgiving, you might have seen shoppers complaining that retailers just weren’t as generous with the discounts this Black Friday. Some went as far as accusing retailers of inflating prices ahead of the sale event to make the discounts look larger than they were in reality; in fact, 56% of respondents said they heard “a lot” or “some” about those accusations. 

Even so, nearly half (45%) of respondents said they did shop Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales, and 30% of those shoppers said they spent more than they expected to. The increasingly blurring boundaries of Cyber Week (when does Black Friday start, anyway?) are making the sale feel less special: More than one-third (39%) of consumers said Black Friday sales are similar to those offered throughout the year. When discounts feel stingy and sales feel less special, the event becomes less powerful for retailers. 

But as retailers already (!) begin planning for 2025, Morning Consult’s new analysis using the Van Westendorp pricing model finds that the discount level most compelling to consumers is between 31% and 51%: more is suspicious, and less is not interesting. 

Consumers say 35% is the discount sweet spot

Using a Van Westendorp model modified to analyze discount levels rather than measure optimal pricing, we determined what deals are simply insufficient to motivate shoppers, and which deals are suspiciously good, prompting shoppers to think the item quality must be poor or the sale was artificially inflated. We found that the ideal range for a Black Friday or Cyber Monday deal is between 31% to 51%, with 35% as the optimal discount.

Per Salesforce data, the average online discount in the U.S. was 28%, falling short of consumers’ expectations. General apparel and health and beauty met shoppers’ expectations with an average discounts of 37% and 35% respectively, but home appliances, decor and furniture only reached a meager 23%. 

For their part, consumers said department stores, electronics, e-commerce and big box stores offered the best Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals. Speciality stores, home improvement stores and boutiques decidedly did not. 

The deals are the point

Cyber Week is a major event for those who participate. Half of consumers (51%) plan ahead for what to buy during Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. That involves looking at deal previews, their gift lists, and personal wish lists to study who will have the best deal on what they hope to score at a steep discount. Around one-third (29%) said they don’t plan ahead. 

Sale attributes related to shopping in person, like enjoying the holiday cheer in stores, fell to the bottom of the list, though many shoppers do enjoy those elements. Black Friday is an online event as much as it is an in-person one: 36% of shoppers said they believe they’ll get the same deals online and in stores, and 30% said the best deals were found online. Just 20% think they need to go in person to get the best price. 

Those who didn’t shop this year’s sales chiefly sat out because they thought stores would be too crowded, or because they couldn’t afford to. It’s notable that high-income households shop Cyber Week sales more frequently than lower-income households do. About two-thirds (64%) of individuals in households earning $100,000 or more annually shopped Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. That number fell to 37% for those earning less than $50,000 annually. While these sales are a great chance to save, the savings are largely on discretionary purchases.

Cyber Week shoppers splurge on others, and themselves

While Black Friday and Cyber Monday are ideally situated on the calendar to clear holiday gifting lists, that doesn’t mean people aren’t indulging in some self-gifting. These substantial discounts do motivate people to splurge on themselves too: Nearly one-third (29%) of Black Friday and Cyber Monday shoppers said they primarily shopped for themselves. That could mean they were tempted by great deals on apparel, or they took advantage of a discount on a much-needed refrigerator replacement.

Whether a splurge or a necessity, men were much more likely than women to say they primarily shopped for themselves, while women were more likely to shop for others. This can be attributed in part to the fact that women are often the default adult in charge of holiday gift shopping for families, and that women expressed more negative sentiment about their finances going into the holiday season, which is unfortunately common year-round. 

Ultimately, meeting consumers’ discount expectations for major sale events will help drive more shopping behavior, particularly from those who are inclined to splurge anyway. Targeting key shopper cohorts with limited doorbuster deals rather than store- or site-wide discounts can help retailers preserve margins while still attracting consumers’ attention during these ultra-competitive events.