A Year of Israel’s War in Gaza Has Left Americans More Sympathetic to Palestinians

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A year after the Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel, there has been a substantial decline in the American electorate’s sympathy for its side of the long-running territorial conflict with the Palestinians. Fewer voters than ever want to see Americans provide Israel with more military assistance. And the bulk of the electorate is still embracing calls for a cease-fire to end the conflict.

But as new tensions unfold in the Middle East, Morning Consult’s latest tracking of public sentiment about Israel’s war with Hamas also found a widespread expectation among voters for more large-scale protests even before Iran’s retaliatory attacks on Israel prompted concerns of more bloodshed in the region.

How sentiment on the war has shifted since October

Our latest survey, conducted Sept. 28-29, found sympathy for the Israeli side of the conflict down by double digits compared with last October (from 41% to 29%), alongside an increase in sympathy for the Palestinians (from 9% to 13%) and for people on both sides (from 26% to 33%).

Among Republican voters, sympathy for both sides reached a high since our tracking of the conflict began (from 19% to 26%), with much of the movement coming after the disturbing images that emerged during the early part of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s military campaign in Gaza.

At the same time, more voters continue to support humanitarian relief for Palestinians than military support for Israel (58% to 46%) — with those backing lethal assistance for the Jewish state declining from 53% nearly a year ago.

Similarly to the trends on the sympathy question, Republicans have become more supportive of assistance for the Palestinian people over the past year (from 46% to 52%), as backing for military aid to Israel has leveled out to roughly how it started (59% to 58%) after a February low point.

It’s worth noting that our latest survey was conducted before Israel’s ground invasion of Lebanon and Iran’s response with a large missile barrage. But in advance of the latest flash point, 3 in 5 voters (61%)  — including the bulk of Republicans and independents, and more than 7 in 10 Democrats — said they supported a cease-fire in the region.

The largest growth in support for a cease-fire since we first asked last November came among Republican voters (from 42% to 56%), though Democrats are most likely to support it (at 72%). 

Americans expect a new protest movement over the war 

Last spring was dominated by images of campus protests, prompting fears that such demonstrations could begin anew when school returned this fall. Those pictures have yet to widely appear, but many voters still expect a new anti-war protest movement to emerge in the coming months.

Our latest survey showed that 63% of voters expect large-scale protests of the Israel-Hamas war to resume in the next six months, driven more so by baby boomers than Gen Zers, who almost entirely make up the current crop of college students (69% to 61%). 

If these protests do emerge again, there is a wide expectation among the larger electorate — and the majority of those youngest voters — that schools should ask the police to keep campuses safe from any violence and ensure the safety of both Jewish and Palestinian students. However, divisions do emerge on a range of potential collegiate actions in response to any mass demonstrations.  

For example, the bulk of Gen Z voters (47%) support institutional statements that condemn Israel’s actions in Gaza, as well as the diverting of university investments from companies and businesses that profit from the war. The first of these measures is opposed by the bulk of all voters and the latter splits the larger electorate. 

There’s also more consensus among the broader electorate to ban pro-Palestinian protests on campuses than banning pro-Israeli ones, while the two actions are more divisive among the youngest voters.

The bottom line

On the first anniversary of the Oct. 7 attack, our surveys show that while voters are twice as likely to say they sympathize with Israel as they are the Palestinians, Israel has lost public sympathy for its military campaign and even its people as more Americans continue to express feelings for both populations as the conflict enters its second year. 

For Netanyahu, it suggests his campaign to revive heightened public support for his effort here in the United States, as shown by his rhetoric aimed at the American people, has failed to break through — especially given the decline in public sympathy among Republican voters. 

At the same time, while the war continues to garner more voter attention in the United States than most other issues, there are few signs any of the recent developments are weighing heavier on the election here, with voters less likely to cite the matter as “very important” to their decision than most other things. This may be undergirding the divide between the Biden administration’s efforts to avoid more violence and Netanyahu’s ability to widen his military campaign.