With Workers Less Willing to Ask for a Raise, Leverage Remains with Employers

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its latest employment report, which will provide the unemployment rate for March, among other indicators such as wages and hours worked. Looking at changes in Morning Consult’s unemployment index, especially during the BLS reference period (data through the 12th of the month), it is likely that the unemployment rate will stay the same. 

Since May 2024, the unemployment rate has oscillated between 4.0% and 4.2%, near historical lows. Still, other data indicators, such as the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which includes data on job openings, hires, and separations, point towards a frozen labor market. The recent release of February data shows more of the same regarding labor conditions. For those with a job, labor market conditions are favorable (except for government workers), but it is not for those looking for a job. 

In an environment where hiring rates are low and switching jobs doesn’t provide the wage boost it used to, how do workers try to get ahead, especially with potential rising costs ahead of them? Morning Consult’s quarterly labor survey sheds light on how employees view the current labor environment. Similar to the JOLTS data, indicators point to a frozen labor market. 

Several survey questions aim to quantify not only those who have looked for a job or turned down an offer but also help us understand why those actively searching for a job can’t seem to get one. In the latest data, an increased share chose “I can’t find available jobs or open positions” as a major reason. This uptick directionally aligns with the government data, such as the share of those unemployed for 27 weeks or longer as a percent of the share unemployed or those who opt for part-time work for economic reasons.

As shown above, the unavailability of jobs also stands out, among other reasons. While “available jobs do not pay enough” was the leading reason for all 2022 and 2023, it became the second major reason in 2024. Why is this switch of importance?

By the beginning of 2024, wage growth adjusted for inflation had risen for about six months. This may have affected how workers began to view their wages. Subsequently, by April 2024, wage growth for job switchers and job stayers was essentially the same. Those who switched jobs in July 2022 saw their wage growth increase 3.4 percentage points above those who have stayed. Mid-2022 was the peak of the hot labor market, but we are almost three years past it. While workers still seek higher wages, the main concern - especially for those looking to switch jobs - has been heavily tilted toward finding jobs.

If the labor market is frozen, it is harder to find employment and, even then, more challenging to get that wage bump from job switching; how are workers expecting to get ahead? We ask workers whether they are willing to work more per week than they currently do in exchange for higher wages. Especially in the recent quarter, the share who said yes has declined. The additional pay would mean different things depending on the job status. If the worker is paid hourly or a gig worker, they may see higher wages very shortly after increasing their hours worked. For a salaried worker, the additional pay may not be as soon; for example, it could manifest through a yearly bonus, a raise, or a promotion next quarter or year. Although all types of workers mentioned above are less willing to work more hours in exchange for increased wages, there is a more prominent drop among salaried workers. 

This drop may be tied to a shift in workers' thinking—especially salaried ones. If they think they are less likely to get a promotion, bonus, or salary increase, they are less likely to work extra hours. In fact, a lower share of employed adults have asked for a promotion or a raise in the last year, potentially driven by their perception of the cooling labor environment. The drop in the first quarter of 2025 is even more prominent but continues the trend since 2024. There is a slight divergence among salaried workers versus hourly workers in the first quarter, but this may be seasonal. The share of salaried workers asking for a promotion or negotiation of salary and benefits ticked up in Q1; however, that is when pay bumps typically go into effect.

We expect more of the same in the near term. A higher share of respondents in the first quarter said they had “about the same” willingness to ask for a raise or bonus, while a lower share was “more willing” to ask for a wage boost. In the currently frozen labor environment with rising uncertainty due to changing economic policies, from tariffs to government staffing, leverage increasingly resides with employers as workers shift their priorities from wage gains to holding onto their current roles.