Most Voters (and Many Republicans) Say Congress Should Extend ACA Premium Subsidies

Congressional Republicans’ rejection of Democrats' attempt to extend the enhanced Affordable Care Act premium subsidies as part of a deal to reopen the government has not yet been top of mind for many voters, only a quarter of whom have heard about their pending expiration at the end of the year.

But as Americans are set to learn more about their health care premium costs over the coming weeks, Morning Consult’s latest survey shows that Democrats have public opinion on their side.

Nearly 3 in 5 voters (58%) say Congress should extend the subsidies, compared with just 1 in 5 who prefer to see them expire.

Extending the assistance, which was expanded to a higher income threshold during the COVID-19 pandemic, is intuitively backed by most Democratic voters. But notably, a 44% plurality of Republican voters also support the policy extension, reflecting the public statements of support from MAGA Republicans such as Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.

If the subsidies do expire, as scheduled, nearly half of voters (48%) are inclined to blame Republicans in Congress, including pluralities of Republicans and those in lower-income households.

The bottom line

The latest Obamacare debate threatens to worsen Republicans’ already-poor performance against Democrats when it comes to voters’ confidence to handle health care issues as the shares looking to Trump’s Washington to prioritize health care affordability is on the rise.

Republicans in Congress are cognizant of this, according to chatter on Capitol Hill. 

Despite opposition to the extension among many congressional conservatives, the folks I’ve talked to believe (as subsequent reporting has suggested) that political pressure on moderates — combined with the somewhat surprising backing offered by some far-right members — will lead to some sort of movement by the end of the year, but not as part of a deal to reopen the government this time, at least not directly.

In the Senate, Punchbowl News reported that a bipartisan group of senators has been working on a deal that would allow for two votes — one to reopen the government followed by another to extend the subsidies for a year. But that may be a long shot given progressive opposition to a short-term extension and ongoing conservative hurdles, not to mention how Republican leaders have ruled out caving to Democratic demands. 

As the discussion advances, businesses and advocates in favor of extending the subsidies are not likely to achieve a total victory — think classic Republican "skin-in-the-game" policies and a lower-income threshold for eligibility. Still, those looking for an extension have public opinion on their side to support what those Republicans I talked to see as President Donald Trump’s well-heeded concerns about taking away another benefit for the lower levels of the American middle class following the Medicaid overhaul he signed into law earlier this year.