Phillips Trails Biden by 69 Points Following Campaign Launch

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Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips’ long-shot bid against President Joe Biden for the Democratic Party’s 2024 presidential nomination is off to a rough start. 

According to our new survey following Phillips’ Oct. 27 campaign announcement, Biden leads the Minnesota lawmaker by 69 percentage points, 73% to 4%. Phillips’ level of support is roughly half of the 10% on average garnered by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. during his brief bid for the Democratic Party’s nod, and matches that of self-help author Marianne Williamson, who launched her campaign in February. Potential Democratic primary voters were also twice as likely to say they’d vote for “someone else” if the nominating contest were held in their state today.

Phillips, who held a low-level leadership position on Capitol Hill before ditching it to launch his campaign in October, is far from a household name, likely contributing to his poor performance against the incumbent. Just over a third of potential Democratic primary voters have formed views about him, with 27% viewing him favorably and 8% viewing him unfavorably. Most potential Democratic primary voters have either never heard of him (53%) or have no opinion (12%). 

In yet another sign of the uphill battle that lies ahead for Phillips, when Democratic voters were asked whether Biden should seek re-election, 74% said he should — up from 62% at the beginning of the year and from 50% last November following the midterm elections. In fact, the share of Democrats who said Biden should run again is identical to the share of GOP voters who said the same of their expected nominee next year, Republican front-runner Donald Trump. 

The bottom line

Despite the whispers disseminated by liberal donors and officials in Washington, often via anonymous quotes to the press, about possibly replacing the incumbent president atop the ticket next year, our data shows there is very little appetite at this time for a Biden challenger, especially someone as low-profile as Phillips.