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Phillips Trails Biden by 69 Points Following Campaign Launch

Just 4% of potential Democratic primary voters are backing the Minnesota Democrat
Graphic conveying Rep. Dean Phillips' (D-Minn.) run to get Democratic Party’s 2024 presidential nomination over President Joe Biden.
Getty Images / Unsplash / Morning Consult artwork by Ashley Berry
November 03, 2023 at 2:27 pm UTC

Key Takeaways

  • President Joe Biden leads Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) by 69 percentage points, 73% to 4%, following the Minnesota lawmaker’s announcement that he’s seeking the Democratic Party’s 2024 presidential nomination. Self-help author Marianne Williamson also has 4% support.

  • When Democratic voters were asked whether Biden should seek re-election, 74% said he should, up from 62% at the beginning of the year and matching the share of GOP voters who said the same of their expected nominee next year, Republican front-runner Donald Trump.

  • The data shows there is little appetite at this time for a Biden challenger among Democrats.

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Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips’ long-shot bid against President Joe Biden for the Democratic Party’s 2024 presidential nomination is off to a rough start. 

Phillips Has Just 4% Backing in the Democratic Primary

Share of potential Democratic primary voters who said they would vote for the following if the 2024 presidential nominating contest were held in their state today:
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Survey conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 2, 2023, among 789 potential Democratic primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-3 percentage points. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

According to our new survey following Phillips’ Oct. 27 campaign announcement, Biden leads the Minnesota lawmaker by 69 percentage points, 73% to 4%. Phillips’ level of support is roughly half of the 10% on average garnered by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. during his brief bid for the Democratic Party’s nod, and matches that of self-help author Marianne Williamson, who launched her campaign in February. Potential Democratic primary voters were also twice as likely to say they’d vote for “someone else” if the nominating contest were held in their state today.

Specific demographics at scale: Surveying thousands of consumers around the world every day powers our ability to examine and analyze perceptions and habits of more specific demographics at scale, like those featured here.

Why it matters: Leaders need a better understanding of their audiences when making key decisions. Our comprehensive approach to understanding audience profiles complements the “who” of demographics and the “what” of behavioral data with critical insights and analysis on the “why.”

Phillips, who held a low-level leadership position on Capitol Hill before ditching it to launch his campaign in October, is far from a household name, likely contributing to his poor performance against the incumbent. Just over a third of potential Democratic primary voters have formed views about him, with 27% viewing him favorably and 8% viewing him unfavorably. Most potential Democratic primary voters have either never heard of him (53%) or have no opinion (12%). 

3 in 4 Democrats Want Biden to Run in 2024

Share of Democratic voters who said Joe Biden should run for president in the 2024 election
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Surveys conducted in 2022 and 2023 among roughly 800 Democratic registered voters each, with unweighted margins of error of +/-4 percentage points. “Don’t know/No opinion” responses not shown.

In yet another sign of the uphill battle that lies ahead for Phillips, when Democratic voters were asked whether Biden should seek re-election, 74% said he should — up from 62% at the beginning of the year and from 50% last November following the midterm elections. In fact, the share of Democrats who said Biden should run again is identical to the share of GOP voters who said the same of their expected nominee next year, Republican front-runner Donald Trump. 

The bottom line

Despite the whispers disseminated by liberal donors and officials in Washington, often via anonymous quotes to the press, about possibly replacing the incumbent president atop the ticket next year, our data shows there is very little appetite at this time for a Biden challenger, especially someone as low-profile as Phillips.

A headshot photograph of Eli Yokley
Eli Yokley
U.S. Politics Analyst

Eli Yokley is Morning Consult’s U.S. politics analyst. Eli joined Morning Consult in 2016 from Roll Call, where he reported on House and Senate campaigns after five years of covering state-level politics in the Show Me State while studying at the University of Missouri in Columbia, including contributions to The New York Times, Politico and The Daily Beast. Follow him on Twitter @eyokley. Interested in connecting with Eli to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].

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