Morning Consult’s Price Surprise Data Suggests Annual Inflation Is Back at 3.0%
Key Takeaways
Morning Consult’s inflation nowcast, based on Price Surprise index values for a subset of goods and services categories, suggests annual topline inflation climbed to 3.0% in September.
Tariff impacts’ upward pressure on goods prices have been contributing to the reheating of inflation, as described in our previous analysis published last week.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics was originally scheduled to release its report on consumer inflation on Oct. 15, but delayed the release to Oct. 24 due to the government shutdown.
Inflation likely ticked higher in September, rising from 2.9% to an estimated 3.0% according to Morning Consult’s inflation nowcast, constituting the fifth consecutive monthly increase in the rate and the highest level since January. This presumed escalation in overall consumer price growth is closely aligned with the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank’s nowcast of 3.0% for September and the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 3.1%.
The recent reheating in inflation is attributable in part to rising goods prices. While their impact was initially blunted by factors such as implementation delays and front-loaded orders, tariffs have slowly but surely been showing up in price hikes for a broad swath of products. Our analysis published last week zeroed in on specific category-level dynamics, including how consumer behavior is shifting in response to price surprise.
Morning Consult’s inflation nowcast relies on Price Surprise index data for a selection of goods and services that have maintained strong historical correlations with their associated consumer price indexes. The Price Surprise index measures the prevalence of consumers who experience higher-than-expected prices when executing a purchase in the past month. Intuitively, changes over time in the net share of “price surprises” should correlate with changes in consumer prices, providing the rationale for using this data for inflation nowcasting.
Kayla Bruun is the lead economist at decision intelligence company Morning Consult, where she works on descriptive and predictive analysis that leverages Morning Consult’s proprietary high-frequency economic data. Prior to joining Morning Consult, Kayla was a key member of the corporate strategy team at telecommunications company SES, where she produced market intelligence and industry analysis of mobility markets.
Kayla also served as an economist at IHS Markit, where she covered global services industries, provided price forecasts, produced written analyses and served as a subject-matter expert on client-facing consulting projects. Kayla earned a bachelor’s degree in economics from Emory University and an MBA with a certificate in nonmarket strategy from Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business. For speaking opportunities and booking requests, please email [email protected]
