GOP’s Clean-Energy Rollback Increasingly Divides Americans

The House Republican push to eliminate clean-energy tax breaks via President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act has emerged has a sticking point as the Senate looks to make its mark on the GOP’s signature policy legislation. It’s increasingly divisive among voters too.

Amid major pushback from some industry groups and lawmakers, our latest survey shows voters are now evenly divided over support for the inclusion of provisions that would remove the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act’s tax breaks for the production of renewable energy sources and consumer purchases of electric vehicles, marking a slight decline in net support from mid-May.

The share of voters who oppose the provision increased from 39% to 42%, driven by an uptick in opposition from Republican voters from 15% to 21%. A majority of Democrats continue to oppose the measure’s inclusion, which also polls underwater with independents by a double-digit margin.

The declining popularity of the energy measures mirrors what we saw with the overall legislative package, driven by a softening of support among Trump’s own base that came after high-profile criticism from tech mogul Elon Musk. It leaves the clean-energy provision among the least popular of the House-passed provisions we’ve tested.

Only two proposals — increasing taxes for colleges and universities and increasing out-of-pocket costs for some Medicaid beneficiaries — garnered less support than the energy provisions. 

As some automotive companies have pushed back on the EV provision, the preservation of tax breaks for the production of renewable energy sources has drawn a wide array of corporate interest. As The Wall Street Journal reported this week, the Data Center Coalition — which includes Microsoft, Alphabet’s Google, Amazon.com and Meta Platforms — called on the Senate to remove the House’s provision over “concerns about rising prices and power shortages” that could imperil artificial intelligence development. 

On top of that, some Republican lawmakers fear disruption to local economies that have welcomed the incentivized transition to cleaner energy sources if the incentives are pulled back.

The bottom line

Those dynamics appear potent enough to prompt planned changes to the structure of phase-outs for the IRA credits in the Senate’s version of the bill. Punchbowl News reported that Senate Republicans plan to rework the proposed sunsetting timelines of clean energy tax credits, though it remains to be seen how that affects Republicans’ math in the other chamber, where House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has a very narrow majority.

While Republicans may not ultimately shudder at the poll numbers regarding the clean-energy provision or the immediate economic disruption in members’ districts, there are other data points that suggest they’d be wise to tread carefully.

Barring a brief period at the outset of Trump’s second presidency, Democrats have generally been more favored to handle energy issues since our tracking began in 2017, including by a 4-point margin in our latest tracking poll.

What’s more, many Americans are still reeling from the inflationary environment of the past several years, which could make for potent Democratic attack ads tying cuts to clean-energy projects to rising electricity bills or gas prices.

All of this is to say that those pushing for the survival of the Biden-era tax credits for clean energy — a once unlikely alliance of corporate interests and climate activists — have a leg up when it comes to public opinion, something Republicans in Congress may be more incentivized to care about than the White House.

But as our report on corporate engagement in the Trump era showed, businesses should tread carefully on direct criticism of Trump, especially on energy issues, raising the pressure on the advocacy groups that represent their interests.