Republicans Are Ready to Hang Tough With Trump on Tariffs. This Makes Them Risky For Corporates.

Consumers seemed as shocked by the magnitude of the U.S. tariffs announced on April 2, a.k.a. “Liberation Day,” as global markets and businesses were. The flurry of threats leading up to the day itself did not prepare anyone for the reality of such large tariffs on major trading partners like China and the European Union. We went into the field with a survey the day after President Trump’s announcement to gauge how U.S. consumers were reacting to the new measures, and how their thoughts on tariffs may have changed since we last ran the same survey in December 2024. Trump has now pushed pause on those tariffs for 90 days after the market turmoil following their implementation, but they (and other tariffs) are still on the table. 

Americans’ support for tariffs has eroded in light of their magnitude

Back in December, U.S. adults were solidly in favor of Washington placing tariffs on imported goods, with 52% saying they supported it while only 24% opposed doing so. Now, however, support has eroded by 8 percentage points, and previously undecided Americans have come off the sidelines to say they oppose tariffs, for a 16 percentage point increase. The movement has been driven by Independents and Democrats, while Republicans are hanging tough with virtually no decline in support for tariffs in general. 

Some U.S. politicians have proposed using tariff revenue as a substitute for federal income tax, an idea that has taken on added relevance as the administration’s tax agenda begins to take shape. When we asked Americans how much they would support or oppose raising U.S. tariffs on imports in exchange for reduced income taxes, the shares in favor were not very different from overall support for tariffs in general, with 41% in favor and 36% opposed. 

Americans of all political stripes are now more likely to think the tariffs are too high than too low

Even though Republicans are still supportive of tariffs in general, and even though a plurality think the current rate is about right, there has been a large increase in the share saying the rate is now too high. Across the political spectrum, U.S. adults are now more likely to say the rate is too high than too low, sending a braking signal to the Trump administration’s tariff enthusiasts. 

Most consumers expect cost pass-through but differ on who they think benefits

This shift against tariffs is not due to Americans thinking it is now more likely that costs will be passed on to consumers. Large majorities of U.S. adults said in December (66%) and say now (70%) that they fully expect companies to pass on the cost of tariffs to consumers. Republicans are as likely to say so as the general population. 

But who Americans think will benefit from the tariffs is shifting. Consumers now believe the harms to all consumers, small businesses, farmers, factory workers and the economy as a whole will be worse than they thought back in December. The last one is notable, because we previously discussed how U.S. consumers thought the tariffs would be a little bit bad for them personally even as many believed they would generally be good for the U.S. economy as a whole. The change in that opinion has been the largest shift. 

Consumers are now more likely to blame the U.S. government for price increases 

Also noteworthy is that on balance, U.S. consumers are slightly more likely now to think the current tariffs will harm coastal elites and big corporations. The only entities that U.S. adults still generally think will benefit from the tariffs are politicians and government revenues. That sends an important signal when it comes to who consumers are more likely to blame for tariffs-related ills, which coincides with declining job approval of President Trump in recent days. Namely, we assess it is now more likely U.S. consumers will blame the administration for the pain they attribute as coming from tariffs compared to a few months ago. 

Republicans still think tariffs will benefit corporations, making them a risky consumer group 

The exception, as usual, is Republicans. We noted in a separate piece of analysis that Republicans exhibited a classic backlash effect when faced with information on tariff costs — they doubled down on supporting them. We see that here as well, with Republicans now slightly more likely to say that consumers will be helped rather than hurt by tariffs. They also remain convinced that on balance, tariffs will be good for pretty much everyone. While they are less sure than before about the benefits to the U.S. economy as a whole, the political class, and manufacturers, their belief that big corporations will benefit remains virtually unchanged. This reinforces our earlier insight that Republican consumers pose a particular risk for corporates who are compelled to pass on costs to consumers. 

Reciprocal tariffs may be paused, but the tariff roller coaster is still in motion

While Trump put most “reciprocal tariffs” on hold on April 9 for 90 days, a 10% minimum tariff rate remains, and China is now under a 145% tariff rate. There are plans for U.S. tariffs on pharmaceuticals, lumber, copper and semiconductors. Tariffs on steel and aluminum, as well as automobile tariffs and levies on goods from Canada and Mexico that are not covered by the USMCA trade deal are still in place. So consumers and governments everywhere are all very much still on Trump’s tariff roller coaster.

Republican consumers have signaled they are ready to hang tough with Trump’s tariffs, with their very high support for them barely budging after Liberation Day, although there was an increase in the number of Republicans saying the level was now “too high.” But Independents have joined Democrats in flipping on tariffs. 

This pattern will affect whom U.S. consumers ultimately blame for any pain coming from the Trump tariffs. Republicans will be more likely than other consumers to blame corporations, who they think ultimately will benefit from them. Trump himself could heighten this risk. He could play into Republicans’ views, calling out companies whose prices increased due to tariffs for “price gouging”.  Other Americans have meanwhile become more likely to think tariffs only benefit the government and politicians, making it relatively less likely they will blame corporations and more likely they will blame the administration for anticipated price increases they attribute to tariffs.