Amid Brewing Tariff Battles, Consumers Are Already Experiencing Firmer Supply Conditions

Consumers are experiencing increasing supply chain pressures even before tariff implementation

Morning Consult’s supply indicators measure supply chain pressures from the consumer’s point of view. In January, the delivery delays index reached its highest level in two years. Although still somewhat negative last month, this score has been slowly inching towards a positive value. The delivery delays index measures online orders’ delivery speed – a positive score means a greater share of consumers report longer wait times compared to the previous month. The delivery delays index was last positive in early 2023, when supply chain pressures played a large contributing role to the surge in inflation in the previous year.

While consumers report more delivery delays, Morning Consult’s purchasing difficulty index, which measures the extent to which buyers experience difficulty obtaining a product or service, continued to largely ease through the end of 2024. However, it picked up slightly in early 2025 to its highest level since July 2024. Increases in stockouts were largely broad based across most categories tracked, but were largest for groceries, as egg shortages persist as a pain point for U.S. consumers.

Unlike businesses, which can frontload some of their deliveries to temper the effects of tariffs, consumers can only pull forward purchases to a limited extent. Budgets permitting, they can purchase certain durable and nondurable goods, but this behavior does not apply to grocery items as much. The nascent tightness on the supply chains front – at least from the consumers’ view – is not because of them pulling forward their purchases. That said, it still exists and the upcoming tariffs would only add to this upward momentum.

Tariffs, and even threats of tariffs, likely to worsen supply chain snarls

At this point in time it is still not clear which of the proposed new tariffs will go into effect – the 10% across the board tariff on China were ultimately enacted, while the 25% Canada and Mexico tariffs were delayed another month. Additionally, new 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel were announced by the President over the weekend along with a promise for “reciprocal” tariffs on every country later this week. 

Amid the uncertainty, it is difficult for economists and companies alike to keep up with the proposed policies, but even more so for the average consumer who may be less inclined to follow every change in tariff policy closely. That being said, from a Morning Consult poll in late January, most U.S. consumers had heard “a lot” or “some” about the latest China/Canada/Mexico tariffs, with a plurality believing that they will harm their household finances. Additionally, from a poll earlier this year, two-thirds of U.S. adults think companies will pass the cost of new tariffs onto consumers. 

Consumers’ awareness on tariffs appears to be centered around the cost pass through of tariffs, and less so on indirect implications from supply chain reorganizations. When tariffs are enacted, companies that manufacture abroad or import inputs as a part of their manufacturing process in the U.S., can either pay more for their imports, or shift their supply chains elsewhere. Both options are costly for corporations and consumers alike, who often see price increases passed down to them, at least partially. Furthermore, shifting supply chains takes time, leading to supply chain blockages in the meantime. During this supply chain reorganization, consumers are likely to see longer delivery times and stockouts, which happen to have already started. 

Supply chain blockages played a large role in the run up of prices in 2022 – a massive wave of goods demand in combination with pandemic closures, chip shortages, geopolitical supply blockages, etc., led to a mismatch of supply and demand, driving up prices globally. As a large player in the global market, widespread tariff increases from the U.S. (even just the threat of tariffs) could cause a shock to supply chains across the globe, pushing prices up for goods once again. 

Goods inflation has been a helper in bringing down topline inflation over the past year and a half as inflation for many goods was either low, or in some cases negative. On the other hand, services inflation has been propping up inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. A hit to goods inflation would be a hit to overall inflation, at least through a one time increase in the price level. Consumers remain highly price-conscious even as the pace of price growth has slowed –  Morning Consult’s price sensitivity index, which measures the prevalence of prospective buyers declining to purchase goods and services due to higher than expected prices, reached a series high in January 2025. A high price sensitivity index suggests that consumers may have more resistance to future price shocks, as their appetite for high prices is at an all time low.

For consumers, groceries are likely to be a major pain point if proposed tariffs are enacted

Consumers reported heightened purchasing difficulty scores for groceries in January, probably in large part due to egg shortages. In addition, the delivery delays index also saw similar increases in recent months – from last November, when President Trump was elected, to January 2025, the delivery delays index increased the most for groceries. Delivery delays are the “last mile” in the supply chain (the most downstream part of the supply chain process) and increasing scores could be reflective of tightness in the final stage of delivery, i.e. shortages of drivers for deliveries. However, lagging delivery delays could also be indicative of potential shortages in stores leading to delayed order shipping. 

These heightened supply chain pressures are from before the implementation of any tariffs – 25% tariffs implemented on Canada and Mexico are likely to drive Morning Consult’s supply chain index scores even higher. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Mexico and Canada accounted for a combined 42% of the United States’ agricultural imports in the last year. Higher costs could force grocery stores and restaurants to look elsewhere for supply, causing more supply chain snarls. Keeping supply as it is would ultimately lead to pass through costs for consumers. Both would lead to higher prices.