Earthquake Barely Shakes Erdogan’s Support Weeks Before Key Turkish Elections

The election still hinges on economic sentiment as investors wait in the wings
Graphic image of the Turkish flag
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May 02, 2023 at 5:00 am UTC

Key Takeaways

  • If Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is voted out after 20 years in office in the May 14 elections, investors anticipate a return to monetary orthodoxy.

  • Political commentators have described the tragic Feb. 6 earthquake — and the ensuing revelations of graft and mismanagement in construction permitting — as a watershed political event that shifted voters’ political calculus shortly before the elections.

  • But Morning Consult data shows that Erdogan hasn’t lost much ground overall since the earthquake, and has even gained support among his base.

  • His approval rating, as well as the share of Turkish adults saying the country is headed in the right direction, continue to track closely with consumer sentiment, which has been improving as inflation has somewhat receded from highs in the second half of 2022.

  • If consumer confidence continues to trend upward, it will play into Erdogan’s hand in the crucial final weeks of campaigning.

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Investors are keeping a close eye on Turkey’s hotly contested May 14 elections. Many observers expect voters to show President Recep Tayyip Erdogan the door after two decades in office — even more so after a 7.8 magnitude earthquake shook southern Turkey less than four months before the elections, killing more than 45,000 Turks and revealing gross mismanagement of construction permitting that worsened the toll. Commentators have described the earthquake as a watershed political event.

Despite being highly investable, Turkey is underweight compared with its peer countries in emerging market investment portfolios. In recent years, investors have fled and stayed away due to Erdogan’s heterodox (i.e., irrational) monetary policies. Foreign investors are watching and hoping for a change, either in the form of an opposition victory ushering in more orthodox policies, or a close call spooking the administration into changing tack.

The earthquake has barely shaken Erdogan’s approval rating

Morning Consult surveys show a small and transitory change in Turkish adults’ perceptions of the overall trajectory of their country after the earthquake. Similarly, approval of Erdogan’s job performance dipped only slightly after the disaster, stalling a rally of approval from lows in the summer of 2022. It has since recovered to its pre-earthquake level.

Erdogan’s base holds firm

Erdogan’s base is not holding him personally responsible for the fallout from the Feb. 6 earthquake. In fact, his approval ratings among his own Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its coalition partner, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), have risen in recent months, registering barely a blip after the February quake. This is in keeping with domestic polling, which found that while opposition parties blame the larger death toll primarily on the government for failing to enforce construction regulations, members of the incumbent parties instead blame construction contractors.

Those whose views are more closely aligned with one of the three opposition parties — the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) and the Good Party (İYİ) — and those professing no party affiliation saw rock bottom but steady levels of support for Erdogan.

Erdoğan’s Support Among His Base Continues to Trend Upward

Shares of Turkish adults affiliated with opposition or incumbent parties who say they approve of Erdoğan’s job performance
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Note: The incumbent group includes respondents aligned with the AKP or MHP. Opposition parties include the CHP, HDP and İYİ. Trend lines for each group are 30-day standard moving averages.
Trend lines represent 30-day standard moving averages of daily surveys of around 100 Turkish adults each, sorted by declared political affiliation, with unweighted margins of error of +/-2 to +/-7 percentage points for each line.

It’s still all about the economy — and surprisingly, that’s good news for Erdogan

Morning Consult’s index of Turkish consumer sentiment, which tracks with Erdogan’s leader approval metric, offers one possible explanation for his favorable prospects despite the earthquake. These series are positively correlated (at +.49) and cointegrated, and consumer sentiment has been improving steadily in recent months with hardly a blip after the earthquake. (Note: The Turkish Statistical Institute’s index of consumer confidence reflects a similar trend.)

How can that be, when inflation is still above 50% year over year, the lira has sunk 13% since July and the country is facing $35 billion in disaster reconstruction costs? For one, consumer confidence is rising from an extraordinarily low base. Neutral sentiment is 100 on the scale. Turkish consumer confidence levels below 50 in summer 2022 were therefore extremely gloomy. They coincided with skyrocketing energy prices in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, contributing to inflation that peaked at a 24-year high of 85.51% in October of that year. Secondly, with Turkey’s central bank, the CBRT, cutting interest rates from 19% last march to a current level of 8.5%, and real interest rates deeply negative, consumers are still seeking to borrow and spend rather than save.

Turkish Consumer Confidence and Leader Approval Are Tightly Intertwined

Morning Consult’s index of consumer confidence in Turkey; Share of Turkish adults who say that they approve of President Erdoğan’s job performance
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Each trend line represents a five-day standard moving average of daily surveys of around 250 Turkish adults each, with an overall margin of error of +/-3 percentage points.

Consumer confidence does not an economy make

Turkey’s inflationary monetary policy has caused the lira to crater, a trend compounded in recent months by a strong dollar. And while consumers and companies benefit from the cheap credit that low interest rates bring, they chafe under rising import prices and policy uncertainty. Even before the earthquake, the International Monetary Fund’s growth projection for Turkey was a modest 2.7% for 2023, and inflation is very likely to accelerate later this year.

In the short term, however, the rally in consumer confidence could not be better timed for the incumbent. If consumer confidence continues to rise, the strong relationship between that indicator and executive approval suggests that Erdogan’s electoral chances will improve in the coming weeks.

The upshot for economic policy

Some have speculated that Erdogan himself will return to monetary orthodoxy based on hints in a recent AKP manifesto. This seems like a long shot, not only because Erdogan views interest rates through an ideological lens, but also because the AKP could choose to interpret a victory as a public mandate to continue its contrarian monetary policies.

It is unclear what economic policies opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu and his team would enact if elected beyond a return to central bank independence and monetary orthodoxy. And even that could have its own pitfalls if not well managed. In the event of an opposition victory, the lira would certainly rally as investors bet on a return to orthodoxy, but a series of rapid rate raises could also throw the Turkish economy into a sharp recession. Investors can only watch and wager as Turkish voters decide between uncertain change and the devil they know. But our data indicates the earthquake will play a lesser role in their calculus than many pundits would suggest.

A headshot photograph of Sonnet Frisbie
Sonnet Frisbie
Deputy Head of Political Intelligence

Sonnet Frisbie is the deputy head of political intelligence and leads Morning Consult’s geopolitical risk offering for Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Prior to joining Morning Consult, Sonnet spent over a decade at the U.S. State Department specializing in issues at the intersection of economics, commerce and political risk in Iraq, Central Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. She holds an MPP from the University of Chicago.

Follow her on Twitter @sonnetfrisbie. Interested in connecting with Sonnet to discuss her analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].

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