Most Voters (but Few Republicans) Want Congress to Rein In Trump Amid Economic Doubts

Voters have soured even further on President Donald Trump’s job performance, both overall and regarding economic issues specifically as markets reacted negatively to his tariff announcement last week.

It has left the bulk of the electorate calling for Republicans in Congress to act as a check on his presidency, though the political incentives are not yet there among the party’s Trump-loyal base.

According to Morning Consult’s latest tracking survey, voters are 3 points more likely to disapprove than approve of Trump’s handling of the economy and trade policy, down by double digits since he took office in January. This follows a similar trend for Trump’s overall approval rating, which — at a second term record-low — is worse off today than it was at this point eight years ago.

The environment Trump has created is already weighing heavily on Republicans in Congress, who have surrendered much of their trust advantage on economic issues to Democrats as voters have turned on tariffs in recent weeks.

These trends could get worse. According to our daily tracking of economic sentiment, this week brought the largest two-day drop in consumer confidence since the emergence of COVID-19 tanked the stock market in March 2020, and Trump is yet to show signs of pulling back as countries line up seeking negotiations.

 The president’s position on trade is also straining relations with his allies on Capitol Hill, re-centering perhaps the biggest question of Trump’s first term: Should Republicans in Congress serve as a check on their party’s president? When it comes to tariffs, most voters think so, but most Republicans do not.

We tested a range of policy issues over the weekend, asking voters if they think Republicans in Congress should focus on supporting Trump's priorities or should focus on being a check and balance.

While the majority of voters say Trump’s party should push back on tariffs, only 31% of Republicans agree. The numbers are similar when it comes to health care and education, while voters are least interested in having Republicans check his priorities on immigration, which remains the GOP’s largest political advantage despite the economic souring.

We also asked this question more broadly without mentioning specific issues. On that matter, 30% of voters said Republicans should go along with Trump, compared with 54% who said they should act as a check.

Those figures are nearly identical to what we found when we first tested this for Politico back in 2017, with Republicans now only slightly less likely to want a check on Trump (37% to 33%).

The bottom line

Unfortunately for businesses hoping to prod the administration toward an off-ramp, Trump’s lame-duck status in theory makes him uniquely impervious to the whims of public opinion for a president at this stage of their term. But that’s not true for Republicans in Congress, whose survival depends on electoral outcomes next year, making them the most obvious pressure point for advocacy campaigns.

This underlines the challenge facing Republicans on Capitol Hill. Trump owns the Republican Party, and with the number of competitive districts continuing to decline, most Republicans in Congress are more vulnerable to a loss in a primary than in a general election, so base politics are paramount. 

That dynamic creates a chicken-and-egg dilemma: As long as Republicans in Congress back Trump on this issue, so will most Republican voters. At the same time, spending precious political capital on a high-profile intraparty fight could end their careers.

Unless things get bad enough for that fight to become worth it for Republicans — or unless Trump decides it’s in his best interest to do what’s best for his allies in Congress — companies are likely stuck with the status quo.