Trump Is Losing Trust on the Economy Amid Trade War

Following a week of economic feuding with Mexico and Canada that rattled markets and heightened fears of a recession, President Donald Trump is losing voters’ confidence to handle the economy as he escalates his trade war with America’s closest neighbors.

According to our weekly tracking survey, voters are roughly split on his handling of the economy and trade policy, marking double-digit declines in sentiment about how he’s dealing with two key campaign pillars after entering office with at least 50% approval ratings on both subjects.

That erosion also appears to be having knock-on effects on Republicans in Congress, who maintain a slight trust advantage over Democrats to handle the economy but have lost voters’ confidence to deal with trade.

Our data on news consumption suggests the emerging American trade war is what’s primarily driving these declines.

Nearly half of voters (47%) said they had seen, read or heard “a lot” about Trump’s imposition of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada on March 4, compared with 33% who said the same about his decision days later to delay the levies until early April.

More broadly, voters were 25 points more likely to report hearing something negative than positive about the economy and trade (47% to 22%) last week, marking the worst net buzz ratings we’ve measured on both of those topics since Trump took office in January.

The fentanyl angle

Voter opposition to Trump’s proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada was already mounting ahead of last week’s back-and-forth. Our data suggests Trump has done a poor job in making a clear case for why he is picking a fight with America’s top trading partners.

Trump has mostly framed his official trade actions around border security and — specifically, stopping the flow of deadly fentanyl into the United States — but he has also cited issues like the country’s trade imbalances and hopes to boost domestic manufacturing. That scattershot messaging approach looks to have filtered down to voters, who are all over the place when asked to pick the president’s main reasoning.

Roughly a quarter of voters (26%) said Trump’s tariffs are to boost the American economy, a relatively minor reason in Trump’s public messaging, while fewer said it was because of the drug issue (19%).

Even among Republicans, there’s little consensus on this question, while the bulk of Democrats and independent voters are most likely to express uncertainty by either citing something else or saying they do not know.

And while few voters may know that fentanyl enforcement is a driving force for these tariffs, when informed of this reason, there’s also little consensus on whether tariffs are effective at forcing other countries to act.

While most Republicans agree this tactic is effective, most Democrats and more independents than not disagree, leaving the electorate divided over the pressure campaign.

Though the fentanyl crisis and any steps to mitigate it shouldn’t be dismissed — it’s clearly a key priority for voters —  our data suggests the president has a tremendous amount of work to do at convincing voters still reeling from inflation that it’s worth increased prices.

Even the 42% of voters who believe that tariffs are an effective way to stop fentanyl from reaching the United States are divided over whether that’s a goal worth chasing if it means prices could rise. And for the broader electorate, it’s clear that prices are the main concern.

The bottom line

The latest moves in the market, coupled with severe retaliatory efforts by Canada, threaten to worsen Trump’s economic standing even further if the past is precedent — removing a major advantage on an issue where the GOP has largely maintained the public’s trust.

As our data shows, Trump’s walk-backs often get less attention than his initial rollouts, so his shock-and-awe approach to policy proclamations makes it harder for him and other Republicans to fix the narrative. And to underline this, Trump’s actions appear to weigh heavily on congressional Republicans' reputation. 

History has shown time and time again that midterm elections are a referendum on the president’s party, with those allies in Congress often paying the biggest price for swings in public opinion. Those swings are already happening in real time, and barring a severe course correction from Trump on trade, you can expect them to leave a mark on the GOP in 2026.