Webinar On-Demand: State of U.S. Elections in September 2024
Key Takeaways
Vice President Kamala Harris is riding a wave of momentum after dealing former President Donald Trump his worst debate defeat in eight years, with her support advantage over the Republican candidate rising to a record-high 6 percentage points in recent days. But she still has gaps to fill — Harris continues to run behind President Joe Biden’s 2020 numbers among some key groups, including independents and voters of color — especially those who identify as moderate or conservative.
So far in this election cycle, voters have rated the economy as their most important issue. After a bout of high inflation and on the heels of the pandemic, voters are unhappy with the economy — 77% of registered voters graded the U.S. economy with a C or worse. Moreover, 3 in 5 voters believe we are either currently experiencing a recession or will be within the next year. As a result, the economy is front of mind for many voters in this upcoming presidential election.
While voters consistently said they trusted Donald Trump to handle the economy more than Joe Biden, Harris has been able to close the trust gap. When asked who was responsible for their grade of the economy, voters were less likely to say Harris than Biden. Furthermore, voters say they trust Harris more than Biden across all economic issues. When respondents were asked about Harris head-to-head with Trump, preference for either candidate depends on the economic issue, with Harris eking out slightly more confidence.
In this webinar, recorded on September. 19, 2024 at 12 p.m. ET, Morning Consult analysts Jason McMann, Cameron Easley, Sofia Baig and Eli Yokley discussed the latest survey results between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, as well as how the economy is influencing voters this election cycle.
Jason I. McMann leads geopolitical risk analysis at Morning Consult. He leverages the company’s high-frequency survey data to advise clients on how to integrate geopolitical risk into their decision-making. Jason previously served as head of analytics at GeoQuant (now part of Fitch Solutions). He holds a Ph.D. from Princeton University’s Politics Department. Follow him on Twitter @jimcmann. Interested in connecting with Jason to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
Eli Yokley is Morning Consult’s U.S. politics analyst. Eli joined Morning Consult in 2016 from Roll Call, where he reported on House and Senate campaigns after five years of covering state-level politics in the Show Me State while studying at the University of Missouri in Columbia, including contributions to The New York Times, Politico and The Daily Beast. Follow him on Twitter @eyokley. Interested in connecting with Eli to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
Cameron Easley is Morning Consult’s head of U.S. Political Analysis. He has led Morning Consult's coverage of U.S. politics and elections since 2016, and his work has appeared in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Politico, Axios, FiveThirtyEight and on Fox News, CNN and MSNBC. Cameron joined Morning Consult from Roll Call, where he was managing editor. He graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Follow him on Twitter @cameron_easley. Interested in connecting with Cameron to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
Sofia Baig is an economist at decision intelligence company Morning Consult, where she works on descriptive and predictive analysis that leverages Morning Consult’s proprietary high-frequency data. Previously, she worked for the Federal Reserve Board as a quantitative analyst, focusing on topics related to monetary policy and bank stress testing. She received a bachelor’s degree in economics from Pomona College and a master’s degree in mathematics and statistics from Georgetown University.
Follow her on Twitter @_SofiaBaig_For speaking opportunities and booking requests, please email [email protected]