Brands
2025 Holiday Shopping Outlook
Report summary
An early analysis into the most important consumer shopping, spending and celebrating trends of the holiday season shows that tariffs will test budgets this holiday season, but consumers are still looking forward to celebrating.
Key Takeaways
- Holiday cheer and financial stress go hand in hand. 65% of shoppers said inflation is impacting their holiday spending. Still, they hope to spend the same or less this year than they usually do, but tariffs will make it hard for brands to meet consumers’ discount expectations.
- Gen Zers and parents are active, engaged shoppers. Early-bird shoppers are off to the races, with 59% of parents saying they’ve already started buying holiday gifts as of late September.
- Travelers are generally feeling excited about their holiday trips. 41% of U.S. adults plan to travel at some point during the 2025 holiday season, with Christmas and Thanksgiving set to draw the highest volume.
- Consumers expect increased food costs over the holidays. Rising grocery prices are raising alarm bells for consumers, particularly high earners – 40% say they expect to spend more than last year on holiday food and beverages.
Data Downloads
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Methodology
The data in this report draws from surveys conducted Sep. 19-21, 2025 and Sep. 23-24, 2025, among at least 2,174 U.S. adults, with a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points. The survey interviews were conducted online, and the data was weighted to approximate populations of adults based on age, gender, race, educational attainment, region, gender by age and race by educational attainment.
The financial well-being data on page 6 draws from a monthly survey of at least 2,200 U.S. adults, collected since June 2021. The consumer spending data on page 7 comes from a monthly survey of 8,200 U.S. adults for data collected after June 2025, and 2,200 U.S. adults for data collected prior to June 2025. The tariff tracker data on page 8 comes from a monthly survey of 2,200 U.S. adults, collected since May of 2025.
About the authors
Lindsey Roeschke is an analyst whose work focuses on behavior and expectations of consumers in the travel & hospitality and food & beverage categories, particularly through a generational and cultural lens. Prior to joining Morning Consult, she served as a director of consumer and culture analysis at Gartner. In addition to her research and advisory background, Lindsey has more than a decade of experience in the advertising world. She has lived and worked in seven cities across four continents.
