Economics
Global Consumer Confidence Report: April 2023
Report summary
Global consumer confidence continued to gain steam in March, with Morning Consult’s Index of Consumer Sentiment rising in more than two-thirds of the countries surveyed. Among most of the world’s 12 largest economies, the ICS is now back to levels last seen in March 2022, before inflation had fully taken its toll on sentiment. To date, falling inflation has been paired with historically low unemployment, providing global consumers direct financial relief. However, across the United States and Europe, core inflation has shown few signs of retreating, putting additional pressure on the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank to continue raising interest rates until they see signs of a persistently cooler labor market. Consequently, further decreases in core inflation are likely to come at the cost of higher unemployment, placing consumers under a new type of financial strain. Furthermore, even if the Federal Reserve and ECB join the Bank of England in pausing interest rate hikes this summer, the global economy will face considerable headwinds from higher borrowing costs.
Key Takeaways
- Consumer confidence increased in March in 29 of the 43 countries tracked by Morning Consult, with an average monthly change of 0.9% in the ICS across all countries.
- Egypt saw the biggest month-over-month increase in the ICS, with its March average rising 7.7% from February.
- Among the economies tracked by Morning Consult, the ICS fell the farthest in Colombia in March. Inflation continues to rise in the Andean economy and is now at its highest level since 1999.
About the authors
John Leer leads Morning Consult’s global economic research, overseeing the company’s economic data collection, validation and analysis. He is an authority on the effects of consumer preferences, expectations and experiences on purchasing patterns, prices and employment.
John continues to advance scholarship in the field of economics, recently partnering with researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland to design a new approach to measuring consumers’ inflation expectations.
This novel approach, now known as the Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations measure, leverages Morning Consult’s high-frequency survey data to capture unique insights into consumers’ expectations for future inflation.
Prior to Morning Consult, John worked for Promontory Financial Group, offering strategic solutions to financial services firms on matters including credit risk modeling and management, corporate governance, and compliance risk management.
He earned a bachelor’s degree in economics and philosophy with honors from Georgetown University and a master’s degree in economics and management studies (MEMS) from Humboldt University in Berlin.
His analysis has been cited in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, The Washington Post, The Economist and more.
Follow him on Twitter @JohnCLeer. For speaking opportunities and booking requests, please email [email protected]
Akber Khan is an economist at decision intelligence company Morning Consult, where he supports the research efforts of the Economic Intelligence team by applying a combination of data science, data engineering and econometric forecasting methods to deliver insights into global macroeconomic trends. Previously, he worked for the Federal Reserve Board as a financial analyst, covering issues such as banking and finance, short-term funding markets, and monetary policy. He received a bachelor’s degree in economics from Bentley University.
Follow him on Twitter @AKhanMC. For speaking opportunities and booking requests, please email [email protected]
Jesse Wheeler previously worked at Morning Consult as a senior economist.
