Economics
Global Consumer Confidence Report: August 2023
Report summary
Global consumer confidence returned to its uptrend in July, led by U.S. consumer strength. Since the end of 2022, falling inflation has helped drive a broad improvement in Morning Consult’s Index of Consumer Sentiment across much of the global economy, with China initially supporting the uptrend after the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions in December 2022. The U.S. consumer is also growing increasingly confident as rising real wages lift incomes and support spending. Across the Americas, falling inflation is supporting confidence, with some central banks in Latin America now feeling secure enough in the trajectory of price growth to start cutting interest rates. While the global economy still faces considerable headwinds, consumers are growing more upbeat for now.
Key Takeaways
- Consumer confidence increased in July in 23 of the 43 countries tracked by Morning Consult.
- Despite rapidly rising prices in Argentina, sentiment improved month over month, with the Morning Consult Index of Consumer Sentiment rising 6.5%.
- For the second month in a row, Turkey recorded the sharpest drop in the Index of Consumer Sentiment. The index fell 8.3% in July as inflation began to reaccelerate amid the government’s shift to more orthodox policies and a pullback on its defense of the lira, which allowed import prices to surge.
About the authors
John Leer leads Morning Consult’s global economic research, overseeing the company’s economic data collection, validation and analysis. He is an authority on the effects of consumer preferences, expectations and experiences on purchasing patterns, prices and employment.
John continues to advance scholarship in the field of economics, recently partnering with researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland to design a new approach to measuring consumers’ inflation expectations.
This novel approach, now known as the Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations measure, leverages Morning Consult’s high-frequency survey data to capture unique insights into consumers’ expectations for future inflation.
Prior to Morning Consult, John worked for Promontory Financial Group, offering strategic solutions to financial services firms on matters including credit risk modeling and management, corporate governance, and compliance risk management.
He earned a bachelor’s degree in economics and philosophy with honors from Georgetown University and a master’s degree in economics and management studies (MEMS) from Humboldt University in Berlin.
His analysis has been cited in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, The Washington Post, The Economist and more.
Follow him on Twitter @JohnCLeer. For speaking opportunities and booking requests, please email [email protected]
Jesse Wheeler previously worked at Morning Consult as a senior economist.
Akber Khan is an economist at decision intelligence company Morning Consult, where he supports the research efforts of the Economic Intelligence team by applying a combination of data science, data engineering and econometric forecasting methods to deliver insights into global macroeconomic trends. Previously, he worked for the Federal Reserve Board as a financial analyst, covering issues such as banking and finance, short-term funding markets, and monetary policy. He received a bachelor’s degree in economics from Bentley University.
Follow him on Twitter @AKhanMC. For speaking opportunities and booking requests, please email [email protected]
