Economics
U.S. Economic Outlook Report: December 2021
Report summary
How will the emerging omicron variant impact the U.S. economy? That seemingly straightforward question has businesses, bankers and policymakers scratching their heads, trying to make sense with limited information and amid elevated uncertainty. Fortunately for the U.S. economy, pre-omicron trends support a positive outlook: Employment gains continue at a rapid rate, inflation expectations are rising more slowly and supply chain disruptions are starting to ease.
Key Takeaways
- Despite rapid job growth, record-high inflation and ongoing uncertainty regarding the new omicron variant, U.S. consumer confidence remained essentially unchanged in November, increasing 0.9 percentage points from the prior month.
- After weeks of decreasing pay and income losses, discouraged workers started looking for jobs again — and most found them.
- Americans’ personal finances remain in a strong position, with 84% of adults saying they were able to pay their bills in October.
About the authors
John Leer leads Morning Consult’s global economic research, overseeing the company’s economic data collection, validation and analysis. He is an authority on the effects of consumer preferences, expectations and experiences on purchasing patterns, prices and employment.
John continues to advance scholarship in the field of economics, recently partnering with researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland to design a new approach to measuring consumers’ inflation expectations.
This novel approach, now known as the Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations measure, leverages Morning Consult’s high-frequency survey data to capture unique insights into consumers’ expectations for future inflation.
Prior to Morning Consult, John worked for Promontory Financial Group, offering strategic solutions to financial services firms on matters including credit risk modeling and management, corporate governance, and compliance risk management.
He earned a bachelor’s degree in economics and philosophy with honors from Georgetown University and a master’s degree in economics and management studies (MEMS) from Humboldt University in Berlin.
His analysis has been cited in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, The Washington Post, The Economist and more.
Follow him on Twitter @JohnCLeer. For speaking opportunities and booking requests, please email [email protected]
Kayla Bruun is a senior economist at decision intelligence company Morning Consult, where she analyzes consumer spending, inflation and household finance trends, leveraging the company’s proprietary high-frequency data.
Prior to joining Morning Consult, Kayla was a key member of the corporate strategy team at telecommunications company SES, where she produced market intelligence and industry analysis of mobility markets.
Kayla also served as an economist at IHS Markit, where she covered global services industries, provided price forecasts, produced written analyses and served as a subject-matter expert on client-facing consulting projects.
Kayla earned a bachelor’s degree in economics from Emory University and an MBA with a certificate in nonmarket strategy from Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business.
Follow her on Twitter @KaylaBruun. For speaking opportunities and booking requests, please email [email protected]
Jesse Wheeler previously worked at Morning Consult as a senior economist.
