U.S. Economic Outlook Report: November 2021
Supply constraints and labor shortages limited economic activity in October, but there is increasing evidence that people are continuing to return to work. Morning Consult’s employment indicators showed the strongest improvements in October, a welcome sign for a jobs recovery stymied by the delta-driven surge in covid cases. At this point in the economic cycle, getting more adults back to work is crucial for future economic activity, and October’s data provided an encouraging signal.
- Morning Consult’s U.S. Index of Consumer Sentiment lost ground in October despite a decline in the total number of covid cases.
- The positive employment trends that began in mid-September continued through the end of October.
- A growing share of consumers struggled to pay their bills in September, causing missed housing payments to rise by 2 percentage points.
About the authors
John Leer leads Morning Consult’s global economic research, overseeing the company’s economic data collection, validation and analysis. He is an authority on the effects of consumer preferences, expectations and experiences on purchasing patterns, prices and employment.
John continues to advance scholarship in the field of economics, recently partnering with researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland to design a new approach to measuring consumers’ inflation expectations.
This novel approach, now known as the Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations measure, leverages Morning Consult’s high-frequency survey data to capture unique insights into consumers’ expectations for future inflation.
Prior to Morning Consult, John worked for Promontory Financial Group, offering strategic solutions to financial services firms on matters including credit risk modeling and management, corporate governance, and compliance risk management.
He earned a bachelor’s degree in economics and philosophy with honors from Georgetown University and a master’s degree in economics and management studies (MEMS) from Humboldt University in Berlin.
His analysis has been cited in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, The Washington Post, The Economist and more.
Kayla Bruun is a senior economist at decision intelligence company Morning Consult, where she analyzes consumer spending, inflation and household finance trends, leveraging the company’s proprietary high-frequency data.
Prior to joining Morning Consult, Kayla was a key member of the corporate strategy team at telecommunications company SES, where she produced market intelligence and industry analysis of mobility markets.
Kayla also served as an economist at IHS Markit, where she covered global services industries, provided price forecasts, produced written analyses and served as a subject-matter expert on client-facing consulting projects.
Kayla earned a bachelor’s degree in economics from Emory University and an MBA with a certificate in nonmarket strategy from Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business.
Jesse Wheeler previously worked at Morning Consult as a senior economist.