U.S. Economic Outlook Report: July 2021
After a sluggish May, the U.S. economy laid the foundation in June for liftoff later this year. Americans are slowly going back to work and returning to look for work, but the rapid jobs recovery many economists expected remains elusive. Built-up savings will provide some consumers a backstop against prolonged unemployment, but a growing share of adults has already depleted the financial cushion provided by stimulus checks.
- Morning Consult’s daily U.S. Index of Consumer Sentiment remained essentially unchanged over the course of the month, indicating that consumer spending and retail sales did not materially change in June.
- The share of Americans experiencing a loss of pay or income remained essentially unchanged during the first three weeks of June, a trend likely to continue given the high number of workers forced to find new jobs.
- Americans’ personal finances remained strong in June, but the benefits from unprecedented fiscal stimulus have begun to erode.
About the authors
John Leer leads Morning Consult’s global economic research, overseeing the company’s economic data collection, validation and analysis. He is an authority on the effects of consumer preferences, expectations and experiences on purchasing patterns, prices and employment.
John continues to advance scholarship in the field of economics, recently partnering with researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland to design a new approach to measuring consumers’ inflation expectations.
This novel approach, now known as the Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations measure, leverages Morning Consult’s high-frequency survey data to capture unique insights into consumers’ expectations for future inflation.
Prior to Morning Consult, John worked for Promontory Financial Group, offering strategic solutions to financial services firms on matters including credit risk modeling and management, corporate governance, and compliance risk management.
He earned a bachelor’s degree in economics and philosophy with honors from Georgetown University and a master’s degree in economics and management studies (MEMS) from Humboldt University in Berlin.
His analysis has been cited in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, The Washington Post, The Economist and more.
Kayla Bruun is a senior economist at decision intelligence company Morning Consult, where she analyzes consumer spending, inflation and household finance trends, leveraging the company’s proprietary high-frequency data.
Prior to joining Morning Consult, Kayla was a key member of the corporate strategy team at telecommunications company SES, where she produced market intelligence and industry analysis of mobility markets.
Kayla also served as an economist at IHS Markit, where she covered global services industries, provided price forecasts, produced written analyses and served as a subject-matter expert on client-facing consulting projects.
Kayla earned a bachelor’s degree in economics from Emory University and an MBA with a certificate in nonmarket strategy from Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business.
Jesse Wheeler previously worked at Morning Consult as a senior economist.