U.S. Economic Outlook Report: May 2022
While the economic outlook looks even more uncertain in May than it has in previous months, the drivers of the economy and the risks to growth have not materially changed from last month’s outlook report, Headwinds Mounting for U.S. Economy. In summary, employment growth remains robust, but persistently elevated inflation and rising interest rates pose significant risks.
- Morning Consult’s daily U.S. Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) exhibited elevated volatility in April, ultimately ending the month in the red.
- Labor markets remained strong throughout April. The share of adults who experienced a loss of pay or income fell in April, continuing its steady downward trend. Job insecurity among employed adults also reached new lows last month.
- The share of Americans who lack savings to cover their basic expenses for a full month was relatively unchanged in April. However, the upward trend over the past six months highlights the negative impact that rising inflation is having on household balance sheets, particularly among lower income adults.
About the authors
John Leer leads Morning Consult’s global economic research, overseeing the company’s economic data collection, validation and analysis. He is an authority on the effects of consumer preferences, expectations and experiences on purchasing patterns, prices and employment.
John continues to advance scholarship in the field of economics, recently partnering with researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland to design a new approach to measuring consumers’ inflation expectations.
This novel approach, now known as the Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations measure, leverages Morning Consult’s high-frequency survey data to capture unique insights into consumers’ expectations for future inflation.
Prior to Morning Consult, John worked for Promontory Financial Group, offering strategic solutions to financial services firms on matters including credit risk modeling and management, corporate governance, and compliance risk management.
He earned a bachelor’s degree in economics and philosophy with honors from Georgetown University and a master’s degree in economics and management studies (MEMS) from Humboldt University in Berlin.
His analysis has been cited in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, The Washington Post, The Economist and more.
Kayla Bruun is a senior economist at decision intelligence company Morning Consult, where she analyzes consumer spending, inflation and household finance trends, leveraging the company’s proprietary high-frequency data.
Prior to joining Morning Consult, Kayla was a key member of the corporate strategy team at telecommunications company SES, where she produced market intelligence and industry analysis of mobility markets.
Kayla also served as an economist at IHS Markit, where she covered global services industries, provided price forecasts, produced written analyses and served as a subject-matter expert on client-facing consulting projects.
Kayla earned a bachelor’s degree in economics from Emory University and an MBA with a certificate in nonmarket strategy from Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business.
Jesse Wheeler previously worked at Morning Consult as a senior economist.