U.S. Jobs & Labor Report: June 2023
The U.S. labor market is proving resilient in the face of 14 months of interest rate hikes. Unemployment is near historic lows, prime-age labor force participation is above pre-pandemic levels, and nominal wage growth remains robust.
The tight labor market is producing especially good results for minority groups and those at the lower end of the income spectrum.
However, we are starting to see signs of cooling in high-frequency data, with Morning Consult’s Lost Pay and Income Tracker coming in higher in recent weeks. While still high, the ratio of job openings to unemployed persons is also coming down.
About the authors
John Leer leads Morning Consult’s global economic research, overseeing the company’s economic data collection, validation and analysis. He is an authority on the effects of consumer preferences, expectations and experiences on purchasing patterns, prices and employment.
John continues to advance scholarship in the field of economics, recently partnering with researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland to design a new approach to measuring consumers’ inflation expectations.
This novel approach, now known as the Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations measure, leverages Morning Consult’s high-frequency survey data to capture unique insights into consumers’ expectations for future inflation.
Prior to Morning Consult, John worked for Promontory Financial Group, offering strategic solutions to financial services firms on matters including credit risk modeling and management, corporate governance, and compliance risk management.
He earned a bachelor’s degree in economics and philosophy with honors from Georgetown University and a master’s degree in economics and management studies (MEMS) from Humboldt University in Berlin.
His analysis has been cited in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, The Washington Post, The Economist and more.
Jesse Wheeler previously worked at Morning Consult as a senior economist.