Global Politics
The Year Ahead in Geopolitical Risk: 2023 Report
Report summary
Morning Consult’s inaugural Year Ahead in Geopolitical Risk report offers a concise macro risk outlook along with 10 key charts and insights to guide multinationals, market actors and policymakers through the risks and opportunities that lie ahead in 2023.
Macro Risk Outlook: Unmet global demand for labor protections, local manufacturing and environmental stewardship — coupled with pronounced pocketbook concerns — will erode public trust in government and business in 2023 if it persists. Addressing public expectations on these fronts is both the chief risk and the chief opportunity facing companies, market actors and policymakers in the year ahead.
Key Takeaways
- Unmet global demand for labor protections, local manufacturing and environmental stewardship — coupled with pronounced pocketbook concerns — will erode public trust in government and business in 2023 if it persists.
- Concerns about the global economy rose slightly in 2022 as many countries brushed aside the pandemic. But a reprieve may be on the horizon in 2023.
- Companies and market actors investing in the green transition should plan for congressional gridlock on climate change come January and expect a costly path forward.
- The United States is winning the battle for hearts and minds amid its unprecedented rivalry with China.
- Consumers’ enthusiasm for imports from friendly countries will encourage further friend-shoring of critical supply chains.
- If China invades Taiwan, plan on slow-moving, piecemeal retaliation as U.S. allies look to Washington to take the lead in responding.
- Barring an invasion of Taiwan, consumer-facing multinationals that stay the course in China will continue to see market opportunities.
- U.S. adults’ prioritization of economically oriented national security issues will lead to greater friction with Europe and more uncertainty for multinationals.
- Washington has a messaging problem on infrastructure financing. Public-private partnerships involving U.S. companies could suffer.
- Persistent retail crypto ownership amid collapsing trust will supercharge regulatory headwinds.
Methodology
This report relies on data collected through Morning Consult’s proprietary survey research capabilities, including from Morning Consult Brand Intelligence, our brand tracking platform that conducts daily surveys of consumers in 43 countries. All interviews are conducted online. Data derives from a combination of recurring and stand-alone surveys fielded throughout the year. Sample sizes and margins of error are indicated in the methodology statements accompanying each slide.
About the authors
Jason I. McMann leads geopolitical risk analysis at Morning Consult. He leverages the company’s high-frequency survey data to advise clients on how to integrate geopolitical risk into their decision-making. Jason previously served as head of analytics at GeoQuant (now part of Fitch Solutions). He holds a Ph.D. from Princeton University’s Politics Department. Follow him on Twitter @jimcmann. Interested in connecting with Jason to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
Sonnet Frisbie is the deputy head of political intelligence and leads Morning Consult’s geopolitical risk offering for Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Prior to joining Morning Consult, Sonnet spent over a decade at the U.S. State Department specializing in issues at the intersection of economics, commerce and political risk in Iraq, Central Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. She holds an MPP from the University of Chicago.
Follow her on Twitter @sonnetfrisbie. Interested in connecting with Sonnet to discuss her analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
Scott Moskowitz is senior analyst for the Asia-Pacific region at Morning Consult, where he leads geopolitical analysis of China and broader regional issues. Scott holds a Ph.D. in sociology from Princeton University and has years of experience working in and conducting Mandarin-language research on China, with an emphasis on the politics of economic development and consumerism. Follow him on Twitter @ScottyMoskowitz. Interested in connecting with Scott to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].
