Global Politics

The Year Ahead in Geopolitical Risk: 2024 Report

January 2024

Report summary

Morning Consult’s annual Year Ahead in Geopolitical Risk report offers a concise global risk outlook along with 10 key charts and insights to guide multinationals, market actors and policymakers through the risks and opportunities that lie ahead in 2024. Consult the full report for our forecasts on the following topics and guidance on scenario planning.

Forecasts Covered:

  • Overall global risk outlook
  • Geopolitical upheaval amid a second Trump presidency
  • U.S. engagement in the Russia-Ukraine War
  • Corporate/brand risk amid the Israel-Hamas War
  • U.S. foreign policy priorities
  • U.S.-China relations
  • Chinese market access
  • U.S.-E.U. relations
  • Deglobalization and economic statecraft
  • Made in America and domestic manufacturing


Sampling and data collection

This report relies on data collected through Morning Consult’s proprietary survey research capabilities, including from Morning Consult Political Intelligence, a product offering access to daily trended data on political attitudes in 43 countries. Consult our Global Political Intelligence Methodology Primer for additional details on sampling and data collection procedures, weighting and representativeness, margins of error, and question wording. The remaining data featured in this report derives from a combination of recurring and stand-alone surveys fielded over the past two years. Sample sizes and margins of error for those surveys are indicated in the methodology statements accompanying each page.

Weighting and population targets

All data featured in this report is weighted to approximate representative samples of either adults or voters in each of the indicated countries. Target populations are the adult (18+) or registered voter populations of the United States, the adult literate population in Brazil, and the adult internet-using population of all other countries.

About the authors

A headshot photograph of Jason McMann
Jason McMann
Head of Political Intelligence

Jason I. McMann leads geopolitical risk analysis at Morning Consult. He leverages the company’s high-frequency survey data to advise clients on how to integrate geopolitical risk into their decision-making. Jason previously served as head of analytics at GeoQuant (now part of Fitch Solutions). He holds a Ph.D. from Princeton University’s Politics Department. Follow him on Twitter @jimcmann. Interested in connecting with Jason to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].

A headshot photograph of Sonnet Frisbie
Sonnet Frisbie
Deputy Head of Political Intelligence

Sonnet Frisbie is the deputy head of political intelligence and leads Morning Consult’s geopolitical risk offering for Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Prior to joining Morning Consult, Sonnet spent over a decade at the U.S. State Department specializing in issues at the intersection of economics, commerce and political risk in Iraq, Central Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. She holds an MPP from the University of Chicago.

Follow her on Twitter @sonnetfrisbie. Interested in connecting with Sonnet to discuss her analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].

A headshot photograph of Scott Moskowitz
Scott Moskowitz
Senior Analyst, APAC

Scott Moskowitz is senior analyst for the Asia-Pacific region at Morning Consult, where he leads geopolitical analysis of China and broader regional issues. Scott holds a Ph.D. in sociology from Princeton University and has years of experience working in and conducting Mandarin-language research on China, with an emphasis on the politics of economic development and consumerism. Follow him on Twitter @ScottyMoskowitz. Interested in connecting with Scott to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].

A headshot photograph of Jon Reid
Jon Reid
Research Editor

Jon Reid previously worked at Morning Consult as a research editor for domestic and world politics.