New Data Signals Emerging Labor Market Weakness and Imminent Slowdown in Demand
NEW YORK — October 2, 2025 — With the Bureau of Labor Statistics sidelined amid the government shutdown, Morning Consult today released fresh data providing an early read on U.S. labor market and consumer demand conditions.
Based on ~5,000 daily interviews with U.S. adults, the Morning Consult Unemployment Index rose to its highest level since June, signaling mounting pressure in the labor market, particularly among prime-age women. Meanwhile, the Morning Consult Consumer Health Index (CHI) — a leading indicator of spending demand — has declined for four consecutive weeks, previewing a cooling in consumption in the weeks ahead.
Key Findings
- Labor Market Weakness Emerging: The Unemployment Index trended upward throughout September, remaining below the neutral 100.0 threshold but reaching its highest point since June.
- Prime-Age Women Most Affected: Rising unemployment was concentrated among female workers in education and health services sectors.
- High Earners Growing Cautious: Job search activity eased in September, led by high-income workers, who are increasingly reluctant to change roles amid uncertainty.
- Consumer Demand Cooling: The Consumer Health Index has fallen for four straight weeks, now at its lowest since early July, with labor market weakness set to drag demand lower over the next month.
- Income Divide Widening: Lower- and middle-income households are feeling the brunt of labor weakness, while high earners remain insulated on jobs — though sentiment among this group is slipping.
“With official jobs data on hold, our research provides an essential real-time gauge of labor market health. Rising unemployment among prime-age women and mounting pressures on lower- and middle-income households point to a looming slowdown in consumer demand,” notes Kayla Bruun, Head of Economic Analysis at Morning Consult.
Leading Indicator of Consumer Demand
Morning Consult’s Consumer Health Index, designed as a leading signal for real annual spending growth, combines daily measures of household financial sentiment with Morning Consult’s proprietary Unemployment Index. Recent declines in CHI preview a near-term softening in U.S. demand:
- Labor-Driven Slowdown: The labor component, based on lagged unemployment shifts, points to weakening demand over the next month.
- High-Earners’ Role: While lower-income households face sharper strain, stability among high-income households’ employment outcomes remains a key support — though slipping confidence could undercut this.
- Broader Risks: With most of the risk to the demand outlook on the downside, the spending resilience that has characterized much of 2025 may now be giving way.
“While high earners may temporarily sustain spending, their weakening sentiment signals downside risk. Our data highlights the importance of private, always-on measures to anticipate shifts in economic conditions — particularly during periods of uncertainty,” Bruun said.
About the Data: Morning Consult conducts ~5,000 daily interviews with U.S. adults, producing timely, high-frequency measures of labor market conditions and consumer demand. Data featured in this release can be explored via:
About Morning Consult: Morning Consult delivers the always-on consumer signal. Every day, we survey 30,000 people across 40+ countries, tracking behavior and sentiment in real time. From hidden growth opportunities to emerging reputation risks, we help leaders see around corners and act first. Learn more at morningconsult.com.
Contact:
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