APAC: Leader Approval & Country Trajectory Outlook, February 2024

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India

Incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to ride high in the polls despite the return of farmers’ protests surrounding the so-called “minimum support price” (MSP) for agricultural goods and a basket of other issues unique to the agricultural sector. A previous round of large-scale protests had been put to bed in November 2021 when Modi agreed to repeal a series of farm bills involving the MSP and establish a commission to consider farmers’ grievances. Alongside other concerns, the MSP nevertheless has yet to see legal guarantees, hence the resumption of the protests.

As distinct from the period of the initial protests — lasting from roughly August 2020 through December 2021, and which saw Modi’s net approval fall to a tracking low — his approval rating at present remains unfazed: Roughly 75% of Indian adults approve of the job he is doing. While Modi’s approval rating has fallen slightly on both a 7-day and 30-day rolling basis in the period following the onset of the latest round of protests on Feb. 13, it remains moderately above levels observed just prior to the 2021 protests, and a more substantial 30 points above a May 2021 nadir when the protests and COVID-19 collided.

Our country trajectory metric tells a similar story and affirms our view that public opinion writ large remains firmly on Modi’s side. Both metrics also show similar trends when we examine the subset of rural respondents in our sample (see leader approval figure below).

India’s farmers may be poised to play haymaker in the upcoming general elections, which are anticipated for April-May 2024. While they have succeeded in capturing the spotlight, our data provides virtually no evidence to suggest the renewed protests have captured the hearts and minds of the broader public. Barring further shifts in sentiment on this front ahead of the elections, we view sector-wide MSP concessions as unlikely, and see limited risks for Modi and the BJP on the national stage.

Indonesia

Following Indonesia’s Feb. 14 elections, our data continues to provide early signals that incoming President Prabowo Subianto will ride Jokowi’s coattails to a smooth honeymoon despite allegations of nepotism that dogged both Jokowi and the Prabowo campaign. As analyzed in our Counter/Consensus briefing just prior to the elections, an overwhelming majority of Indonesian adults approved of Jokowi’s performance in office during that time period, and his approval rating has held steady post-elections. By extension, we expect his son Gibran’s upcoming inauguration as vice president will provide an early boost to Prabowo’s own approval ratings (Morning Consult will begin tracking Prabowo’s approval post-inauguration, and will continue to track Jokowi’s in the meantime).

Our country trajectory metric similarly provides early signs of Prabowo’s anticipated good fortunes: The share of Indonesian adults who see their country headed in the “right direction” remains in line with levels we observed just prior to the elections, and is currently hovering near the top of its tracking range.

Prabowo’s detractors are not without merit — both concerning the nepotism allegations against Jokowi and longstanding criticism of his human rights record. But our data provides no indication that the average Indonesian adult is especially concerned.

Pakistan

As we wrote in our latest Counter/Consensus briefing from Feb. 22, we expected Shehbaz Sharif to see little love following Pakistan’s Feb. 8 election. Our data continues to bear that forecast out one week later. Since that briefing published, Sharif’s net approval has continued to fall on net, on both a 7-day and 30-day rolling basis, though signs of a potential rebound have begun to materialize on the former metric. Our country trajectory data shows a similar trend, but with no signs of a rebound yet in sight.

It is possible that Sharif is down but not out. On both metrics, Sharif’s performance remains well above tracking lows observed during his tenure. But there will be challenges ahead: most imminently, the country’s need to re-up a $6 billion deal with the International Monetary Fund. Sharif’s predecessor in office, former Prime Minister Imran Khan, signed up for a similar agreement and saw subsequent protests targeting both the IMF package and allegations of a rigged election.

History now repeats itself: We expect protests on both fronts to continue materializing in the weeks and months ahead, with ongoing negative knock-on effects for Sharif despite receiving the military’s blessing.

Methodology

Every day, Morning Consult surveys thousands of respondents across 43 countries to assess public views of incumbent political leaders, country trajectories, and attitudes toward other countries and international organizations. Our Political Intelligence solution — encompassing 6+ years of trended data across dozens of markets and hundreds of demographics — provides clients across the public and private sectors with data at the scale and speed needed to navigate the changing political and geopolitical landscape in real-time. For detailed information on average daily sample sizes, target populations and more, consult our companion methodology primer here.