Democrats Lead Republicans on Generic Ballot Ahead of 2026 Midterm Elections

Democrats are leading Republicans in the race for control of the House, according to Morning Consult’s first publicly released congressional generic ballot poll, though their advantage now is slightly smaller than it was at a similar point in President Donald Trump’s first term, with fewer voters undecided on the question.

According to our Aug. 29-31 survey, 45% of voters say they’re more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate if the election for their congressional district were held today, compared with 41% who would support the Republican. That 4-percentage-point edge matches what we measured in September 2021, during a midterm cycle Republicans ultimately won by nearly 3 points. It’s also only marginally less than the 5-point advantage Democrats had in September 2017, before they won the national popular vote a year later by nearly 9 points.

At the demographic level, Democrats have a slightly larger advantage among independent voters at this point than they did back in 2017, though many remain undecided more than a year out from the counting of ballots.

Among women, Democrats look better than they have in the prior two midterm cycles, even as men have moved toward the GOP in a sign of further polarization along gender lines. On the other hand, white voters — among whom Republicans have a narrow lead — have become more likely to express support at this point for Democrats, while Black voters’ 18% support for Republicans is more than twice as high as it was at this point in 2017 or 2021.

The bottom line

The congressional Democrats’ 4-point advantage is inside the surveys’ margin of error, and comes after The New York Times’ Nate Cohn wrote over the weekend that Democrats would need to win the popular vote next year by more than 3 points to retake the House if things don’t go their way during the Trump-backed, state-level redistricting efforts.

Beyond that, we’ll say it a lot over the next year, but enthusiasm reigns heavily here, with no marquee top-of-the-ticket presidential contest to draw voters to the polls. And on this front, Democrats are currently at a disadvantage.

On the Democratic side of the aisle, just half (49%) of voters said they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting in the midterms, less than the 3 in 5 of Republicans who said the same. At the same time, Democrats are also far less likely than Republican voters to see their respective parties headed in the right direction (54% to 82%), which may help explain their current lack of enthusiasm for voting next year.

To be sure, increases in educational polarization should benefit Democrats in 2026 given the advantage Trump has amassed among lower-frequency voters who are more likely to eschew midterm contests, when he isn’t on the ballot. And, the president’s toxic numbers among independents could prove decisive with swing voters if they’re incentivized to show up and vote. 

But, as evidenced by the surge in support for California Gov. Gavin Newsom in our hypothetical Democratic 2028 primary poll, much of the Democratic Party’s base clearly lacks excitement for the way the party is handling the second Trump presidency. This highlights how much work candidates and the larger Democratic apparatus has to do over the coming year to prove their worth — and their ability to take on Trump for his final two years.