Gavin Newsom Keeps Gaining 2028 Democratic Primary Support

California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s star continues to rise ahead of the 2028 Democratic presidential primary.

According to our latest gauge of the mood of the party’s potential primary voters, Newsom is backed by 19% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, up from 11% in June and from 5% in March.

Newsom’s ascent comes as former Vice President Kamala Harris’ backing has dropped from 36% to 29% over the past five months. The bulk of that erosion for Harris, who has seen no real change to her still rosy 86% favorability rating among Democratic voters, has come since early June. 

What makes Newsom’s surge so striking is the fact that he’s the only potential candidate that’s making significant gains. The next two names on the list, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), have virtually the same level of backing as they had in our first look this year. 

That lack of momentum also applies to a number of Democratic governors seen as 2028 hopefuls, including Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro, who polls at 4%, Minnesota’s Tim Walz and Illinois’ JB Pritzker (3% each), Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer and Kentucky’s Andy Beshear (2% each), and Maryland’s Wes Moore (1%).

Newsom’s improvements include a 19-point increase in support among Gen Xers and 15-point boosts among white voters and men, with whom Harris now only has a slight advantage. Newsom also boosted his numbers by 7 points among Black voters since March, though Harris still holds a commanding 45% to 9% lead among that crucial Democratic constituency.

Ocasio-Cortez, on the other hand, has 5% support among Black voters in the party’s electorate, while Buttigieg has a meager 2%. 

The bottom line

Newsom’s rise marks an endorsement of his aggressive anti-Trump messaging strategy that’s included hits on the president’s immigration policies, Trump-style social media messages and his new push to redraw California’s congressional district boundaries. That effort, which follows the Texas state Legislature’s Trump-backed vote last week for a new map to boost the GOP’s chances in the midterms, resonated with 63% of the party’s voters — including 37% who heard “a lot” — according to our latest tracking of public opinion on national politics and policy.

To be sure, we’ll include all the necessary caveats: It is exceptionally early, and nobody is officially running. But the apparent responsiveness among the Democratic electorate to Newsom’s actions suggests the appetite for a strong and loud fighter against Trump is real.

While Harris remains the nominal front-runner for a host of reasons, Newsom is clearly eating at her backing — and doing the early work to position himself as the best of the rest should he decide to make a bid for the Oval Office in 2028.