Most Republicans Would Support Trump Jr. or Vance if the 2028 Primary Were Today

It’s unusual for a party fresh off of an electoral victory that secured a governing trifecta in the White House, Senate and House to need to immediately consider a succession plan for its standard-bearer, but the idiosyncracies of the Trump era of politics have put the Republican Party in that position.

And as the quiet conversations begin about what’s next for the GOP when President-elect Donald Trump finishes his final term in office, a new Morning Consult survey of the hypothetical 2028 Republican primary field suggests the party is primed to evolve in his image.

Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who could vote in a 2028 primary are divided between Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., and his incoming vice president, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, at 30% each.  It’s a long way down until you reach options 2 and 3, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (9%) and Nikki Haley (6%), Trump’s former ambassador to the United Nations who ran the longest campaign against Trump in 2024. 

The differences in GOP voters’ preference between Trump’s eldest son and Vance is driven largely by age.

While there is no gender gap at this stage, the GOP’s youngest potential voters (those ages 18-34) are far more likely to support Trump Jr. than Vance (44% to 27%), while the oldest among them are more likely to opt for the vice president-elect than Trump’s son (40% to 14%). 

The bottom line

This extremely early hypothetical test of a field of potential candidates sets a marker for what could be an expensive and messy fight over the new face of the Republican Party when Trump leaves the White House. And it’s clear that the bulk of the party’s electorate is firmly behind the Trump brand, though whether that remains the case in 2028 will be highly reliant on how the next few years go for the president-elect. 

Should Trump Jr. decide to run, his name would make him a formidable candidate. He has more support today than he did when we ran a similar survey in January 2022, when he was virtually tied with DeSantis in a hypothetical survey that did not include his father.

If he doesn’t, Vance would likely have a leg-up on other candidates should he run given the enormous potential to use the vice presidential bully pulpit to build himself up — if the elder Trump allows him to shine. 

Of course, personal dynamics should also be considered here. Trump Jr. and Vance share a close relationship after all, and it may be highly unlikely that the two would challenge each other for the nomination. If that’s in their thinking, then perhaps this survey more than anything suggests their potential potency as a ticket.