How Political Polarization is Impacting Air Travel

Less than two months into 2025, the year has already proven to be a turbulent one for air travel. The second high-profile commercial aviation accident of the year involving a U.S. carrier occurred on February 17, when a Delta Air Lines plane crashed and turned upside-down upon landing at Toronto Pearson airport. While thankfully there were no fatalities, the incident came on the heels of a tragic American Airlines crash in Washington, DC in January — the first major commercial crash in the U.S. since 2009 — not to mention three other fatal incidents involving smaller, non-commercial aircraft.

The incidents and resultant news coverage may shake the faith of many nervous flyers who have long sought comfort in the fact that air travel is statistically the safest mode of transportation. But, as is the case with many aspects of American society these days, reactions to these tragedies have been shaped by deeply polarized political views.

Travel safety concerns are impacting Democrats’ willingness to take a trip

In the immediate aftermath of the January tragedy in the nation’s capital, President Donald Trump — just over a week into his second term — implied that DEI policies could be to blame for the tragedy. With DEI already a hot-button political issue, reactions to his statements fell along predictable partisan lines, with many high-profile Democrats expressing outrage over the president’s framing, and prominent Republicans doubling down on the assertion.

Morning Consult monthly tracking data reveals that this polarization is impacting the way people on either side of the aisle are thinking about travel. In the early days of January, when asked what kind of impact their sense of safety had on their willingness to travel for leisure, 19% of Democrats said it had a negative impact; in February, after the Washington DC crash and other air travel fatalities, that share grew to 21%, while the share who said their safety perceptions positively impacted their travel declined by 6 points, resulting in a net swing of 8 points overall toward the negative. In contrast, Republican opinions remained largely consistent month over month.

There is similar movement in the impact of consumers’ perceptions of the safety and health standards of travel brands. Here, there was a 6-point net movement toward negative impact amongst Democrats, compared to a 2-point swing towards the positive for Republicans.

These shifts were measured before the non-fatal yet certainly frightening Delta crash in Toronto, and layoffs of hundreds of employees of the Federal Aviation Administration, which (among other things) is responsible for ensuring the safety of air travel in U.S. airspace. These more recent events have further cemented conversation about the state of commercial air travel safety in the media, and will likely deepen the divide between the ideological cohorts.

What’s more, these shifts in perception already appear to be impacting traveler behavior.

Republicans are more likely than any point since the pandemic to consider booking airfare

Traditionally, shifts in trust and favorability in airline brands have not had major impacts on booking volume, mostly because travelers often have no option other than to fly to and from a given destination. That said, it does appear that polarization is impacting travel plans. Intent to purchase from brands in a group of major U.S. airlines has been on the rise amongst Republicans since Donald Trump secured his second term in November of 2024. 

Certainly, some of that may be due to perceptions among Republicans that a Trump presidency would be good for the economy, and that the resultant impact on their own finances would result in more disposable income for travel. But the sharp upward shift from January to February of 2025 hints at a deeper motivator, perhaps partisan desires to double down or prove a point that with new leadership, they are more confident to fly than ever. For this group, net purchasing intent is positive (meaning more Republicans are considering booking with airlines than not) for the first time, and currently lands at a high water mark for any cohort since 2020.

At the same time, purchasing intent amongst Democrats has been trending down since November 2024. Of course this may reflect the inverse of what’s happening with Republicans — Democrats are thinking more cautiously about spending as they anticipate a worsening economy under Trump. At the same time, with internet searches for terms like “flight safety” and “plane safety” spiking in late January, the decline may also be driven by fresh concerns and mistrust of the administration’s management of the sector.

No matter the reason, this is a challenge for airlines, and for travel brands in general. Since emerging from pandemic-era travel restrictions in late 2020, Democrats have consistently shown a higher net purchasing intent for airlines than Republicans. A sustained decrease in purchasing from this group would most certainly have an adverse effect on the airline industry.