Counter/Consensus: Continuing Anti-Americanism Fallout, Changes in Global Corporate Purpose, and Germany's Turning Point Tension

1. Anti-Americanism (Counter)

Wishful thinking. For those hoping that the Trump administration’s 90-day tariff pause may have undone the reputational damage to “Brand USA” caused by the “Liberation Day” tariff announcements on April 2… think again. While global average favorability toward the United States rebounded somewhat following the announcement of the tariff pause on April 9, sentiment remains well below the levels we observed just prior to Liberation Day. And as we documented in greater detail in a memo earlier this week, that metric — which we use as our top-line gauge of anti-Americanism — has now tipped into negative territory for the first time in years following a staggering 25-point decline since the start of 2025.

Just as global public sentiment continues to disfavor the United States despite the tariff pause, so too for U.S. brands (though not all of them). From Jan. 1-April 15, 2025 (extending roughly one week beyond the administration’s announcement of a tariff pause), the average U.S. brand serving consumers in key overseas markets targeted by U.S. tariffs has fared similarly to the average local brand when it comes to changes in purchase consideration. But our data continues to indicate that the hardest-hit U.S. brands have seen relatively steep declines in consideration that consistently exceed those experienced by local competitors. This suggests that overseas consumers are continuing to single out some American brands due to their country of origin, with many of the most storied U.S. brands falling into this bucket.

The potential impact on targeted brands is non-trivial. In the somewhat narrower window surrounding the reciprocal tariff announcements — specifically from March 1 through April 15 — the top 20 brands ranked by net purchase consideration in each market we examine (Canada, Mexico, France, Germany, the U.K., and China) saw declines ranging from 3-18 points.

What’s more, the industry concentration of U.S. brands being targeted by overseas consumers is relatively diverse, complicating planning efforts. While brands operating in the food & beverage sector are among the most exposed in North America (see chart for Canada below), industry exposure in Europe is more dispersed and, on the whole, varies widely by consumer market.

Looking ahead, we expect heightened anti-Americanism to persist for the foreseeable future, with attendant risks for brands. While much of the decline in America’s global standing has coincided with the Trump administration’s successive tariff announcements, other longer-term drivers are also at play that will likely outlast the tariff war. The Trump administration’s willingness to see Ukraine cede territory to Russia as part of a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine, a reduction in U.S. funding for overseas humanitarian assistance, and Washington’s general geopolitical retrenchment are among them.

U.S. companies should plan for ongoing brand risks resulting from these dynamics regardless of how the reciprocal tariff spat plays out, and should take advantage of the 90-day U.S. tariff pause to better understand exactly how global consumers view their brand relative to both American and local competitors, and take action accordingly.

2. Global Purpose (Consensus)

Find your (market-specific) purpose. In a new report for business leaders on navigating corporate engagement under the Trump presidency, Morning Consult found that U.S. consumers are now slightly less likely to want corporations to play an active role in politics compared with one year ago. Americans also want engagement to be directly related to companies’ core business activities when they do take a stance. 

Trump is one obvious factor influencing the zeitgeist, as he attacks DEI efforts as “woke ideology” and targets companies that engage in ways he dislikes. But looking abroad, our data shows us that Trump is not the entire story. Just as right-wing political parties have seen a resurgence in many countries, the public’s shift away from supporting corporate activism abroad is also more varied than Americans might immediately think. For example, in the United Kingdom, we see similar downward shifts in support for corporations taking a stance on hot-button issues over roughly the past year, ranging from unionization to transgender rights, with similar trends visible in Germany and Japan. But in Brazil (second chart below), we see virtually no change in the public’s desire for corporate engagement on these and other issues. France and Australia, meanwhile, look more like Brazil, and even show slight increases in support for corporate engagement on some issues. 

As Americans, we often assume we are the vanguard of the global culture wars. And indeed, U.S. culture does exert a strong influence globally via U.S. entertainment and media. But at the moment, our data continues to highlight that consumers in many markets have distinct preferences for corporate engagement on a variety of issues, along with their own social entrepreneurs influencing the local environment. For corporates navigating communications in multiple markets, the approach is not one-size-fits-all.

3. Germany (Counter)

A tale of two turning points. When Russia invaded Ukraine in Feb. 2022, Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared it a historic turning point, or Zeitenwende, promising major increases to defense spending and a pivot to renewable energy to wean Germany off Russian gas. And while the Zeitenwende seems to have had a wide turning radius, Scholz’s successor, Friedrich Merz (who we’ll soon be adding to our leader approval tracker), is poised to continue the volte-face. On the face of it, this should dovetail nicely with Germany’s existing Energiewende, or energy turning point, which aims to reach climate neutrality by 2045. In reality, there is tension between the two, especially given budget constraints. 

With Trump’s tariff threats looming and the U.S. administration making it clear that Europe needs to provide the lion’s share of military support for Ukraine, Germans on balance do not believe other countries will come to Germany’s aid, underpinning public support for a major foreign policy shift. 

Germans are also changing their tune on the tradeoffs between economic growth and emissions reductions in light of shifting geopolitics and slower economic growth. While more German adults than not still think these tradeoffs are worth it (i.e. fewer emissions in exchange for slower growth), the share in favor has declined and now sits below 50%. 

And in our most recent outlook report on ESG and corporate responsibility (published earlier this week), Germany stood out for its 7-point decline in public support for national emissions reduction targets over the last six months.

Germany is currently not on track to meet its 2030 climate goals even under the status quo. Merz’s new government is planning a major spending blitz focused on defense and infrastructure, with the aim of boosting Germany’s defense base and industrial economy. At the heart of this plan is the need to reduce energy costs for German industry. This includes lower electricity taxes, reduced grid fees, and removal of a levy on gas prices and an industrial electricity rate. The incoming coalition also plans to reverse the controversial cancellation of the agricultural diesel rebate, a green measure which sparked protests by farmers in 2023-24. While these measures aim to enhance the country’s industrial competitiveness, they may impede Germany's ability to meet its 2030 emissions reduction targets. Merz’s huge spending plan does include provisions for some spending on renewal energy projects — a silver lining for climate hawks. And the government vocally supports the EU's goal of cutting emissions by 90% by 2040. 

But the focus of relaxing the so-called “debt brake” is on national security and industrial growth. The need for more and cheaper industrial energy, and public support thereof, will continue to create tension between Germany’s two turning points. 

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