Trump’s Iowa Support Grows Ahead of Next Week’s Caucuses

The GOP front-runner leads Haley and DeSantis by more than 40 percentage points
Getty Images / Morning Consult artwork by Kelly Rice
January 08, 2024 at 6:10 pm UTC

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One week out from Iowa’s Republican presidential caucuses, Morning Consult surveys show Donald Trump is padding his already sizable lead in the Hawkeye State.

Trump Maintains a Commanding Lead as Haley Surpasses DeSantis

Share of potential Republican caucusgoers in Iowa who said they would vote for the following if the nominating contest were held in their state today:
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The December 2023 data points include responses gathered Jan. 1-7, 2024.
Surveys conducted from December 2022 to January 2024 among unweighted samples of at least 181 potential Republican caucusgoers in Iowa, with unweighted margins of error of +/-5 to +/-7 percentage points.

According to the latest surveys, conducted from Dec. 1, 2023, through Jan. 7, 2024, among 353 potential Republican caucusgoers in Iowa, 58% are backing Trump ahead of the Jan. 15 contest. 

Trump’s lead is up 8 points from his showing in November 2023, which puts him 43 points ahead of former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who with 15% has pulled 1 point ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

This is daily data: We survey thousands of U.S. voters every day, producing exclusive daily tracking among thousands of Republican primary voters ahead of Election Day.

Understand true impact in real time: Other, more traditional polls with smaller sample sizes may look noisy or show jumps in support. Our dedication to high-frequency survey research means larger sample sizes of voters and demographics, with more consistency and more stability. Daily data matters.

DeSantis’ support in Iowa has declined from 18% to 14% since November, compared with a 4-point increase for Haley. Another candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy, saw his support fall from 13% to 10% in the latest survey tracking. Two other candidates, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, are polling at 2% and 1%, respectively.

The latest responses have an unweighted margin of error of plus or minus 5 points.

What it means for 2024

These survey findings from Iowa go some way toward validating the conventional wisdom on the state of play heading into next week’s first-in-the-nation nominating contest: Trump looks primed to kick things off with a big victory, and a Haley surge may be coming at the perfect time to allow her to pull off a second-place finish.

A headshot photograph of Cameron Easley
Cameron Easley
Lead U.S. Politics Analyst

Cameron Easley is Morning Consult’s lead analyst for U.S. politics. Prior to moving into his current role, he led Morning Consult's editorial coverage of U.S. politics and elections from 2016 through 2022. Cameron joined Morning Consult from Roll Call, where he was managing editor. He graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Follow him on Twitter @cameron_easley. Interested in connecting with Cameron to discuss his analysis or for a media engagement or speaking opportunity? Email [email protected].

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