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One week out from Iowa’s Republican presidential caucuses, Morning Consult surveys show Donald Trump is padding his already sizable lead in the Hawkeye State.
Trump Maintains a Commanding Lead as Haley Surpasses DeSantis
According to the latest surveys, conducted from Dec. 1, 2023, through Jan. 7, 2024, among 353 potential Republican caucusgoers in Iowa, 58% are backing Trump ahead of the Jan. 15 contest.
Trump’s lead is up 8 points from his showing in November 2023, which puts him 43 points ahead of former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who with 15% has pulled 1 point ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
This is daily data: We survey thousands of U.S. voters every day, producing exclusive daily tracking among thousands of Republican primary voters ahead of Election Day.
Understand true impact in real time: Other, more traditional polls with smaller sample sizes may look noisy or show jumps in support. Our dedication to high-frequency survey research means larger sample sizes of voters and demographics, with more consistency and more stability. Daily data matters.
DeSantis’ support in Iowa has declined from 18% to 14% since November, compared with a 4-point increase for Haley. Another candidate, Vivek Ramaswamy, saw his support fall from 13% to 10% in the latest survey tracking. Two other candidates, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, are polling at 2% and 1%, respectively.
The latest responses have an unweighted margin of error of plus or minus 5 points.
What it means for 2024
These survey findings from Iowa go some way toward validating the conventional wisdom on the state of play heading into next week’s first-in-the-nation nominating contest: Trump looks primed to kick things off with a big victory, and a Haley surge may be coming at the perfect time to allow her to pull off a second-place finish.