Morning Consult Counter/Consensus: Global Political Risk Briefing, June 27, 2024

1. Russia (Counter)

From Russia with love. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been on a targeted charm offensive in recent months, visiting China, Vietnam and North Korea in May and June and flitting to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates late last year. Countering isolation resulting from Western sanctions imposed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a motivator, with the Middle East a key region for cooperation on oil and gas, and Russia’s “no limits partnership” with China a hedge against Western censure. 

Public opinion of Russia in Vietnam and China saw a slight bump immediately following the visit, but favorability of the Eurasian giant remains well below levels from before the invasion. In short, Russia still hasn’t regained its sparkle in East Asia, no limits partnership notwithstanding. 

The Middle East is another story. Russia’s more pro-Palestinian response to the Israel-Hamas conflict, despite Russia’s historical ties and previously warm relations with Israel, seems to have curried favor with some Middle Eastern audiences. While Russia’s favorability did not get a boost around Putin’s December visits, it had already begun a steady climb in countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the months following Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks on Israel. 

With the recent news of a possible July visit by newly re-elected (but somewhat chastened) Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Moscow, we expect a similar dynamic as we saw in Asian countries: Pragmatism over idealism. Indians’ opinion of Russia has also not fully recovered since the invasion of Ukraine, but India relies on Russia for weapons and energy. 

Research on the relationship between foreign policy and public opinion shows that influence can cut both ways. In the case of Vietnam and China, public opinion seemed only slightly swayed by the elite displays of mutual regard. But while Putin’s visits may not have won him many additional hearts and minds in Asia, advances in public sentiment in the Middle East may have facilitated deeper political engagement. We expect Putin to continue to be a deft participant in the ongoing dance between pragmatism and ideals in his dealing with other countries’ leaders and their constituents. 

2. NATO (Consensus)

75 and still in SHAPE. NATO turned 75 years old in April. While some would have said the septuagenarian was on its last legs just a few years ago, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 injected a new sense of purpose into the alliance. That purpose can be seen in the shifting public opinion of NATO around that event. 

Regional differences are sharp. Unsurprisingly, in North America and Europe opinions of NATO jumped after the invasion highlighted the alliance’s importance for their security. In Asia and Latin America, a dip in views of NATO reflect worries about escalation between Russia and NATO in Ukraine. In the Middle East and Africa, views were largely unchanged by the invasion of Ukraine, but dropped sharply after the start of the Israel-Hamas conflict. 

Getting a bit more granular, the institution is largely popular among its members, except for ambivalent Turkey. NATO is unsurprisingly deeply unpopular in Russia, and evokes mixed feelings in other parts of the so-called Global South. China and South Africa have nearly neutral views about the alliance while, though non-aligned, India feels positively. 

The elephant in the room is a possible second term for President Donald Trump, famously a NATO skeptic. Congress prophylactically passed a bill that makes it more difficult for the U.S. president to withdraw from NATO, but the commander-in-chief could undermine the alliance simply by casting the U.S. commitment to collective security in doubt. It appears that when it comes to the future of the aging Cold War-era military alliance, there is no rest for the weary. 

3. Philippines (Consensus)

A little help from a neighbor. The South China Sea is largely viewed as the potential flash point in the growing U.S.-China competition, with U.S. allies in the region like Japan and the Philippines in a delicate dance with Beijing. The beleaguered Filipino navy, on the receiving end of escalating assertiveness by the Chinese Coast Guard, recently received backup from a non-ally. On May 19, Indian warships steamed into Manila port in a show of solidarity, and a recent delivery of Indian supersonic BrahMos missiles to Manila also signaled closer military cooperation. 

It appears that the display went largely unnoticed by the general public in the Philippines (first chart below), but not perhaps by those who are members of military households (second chart below). 

We must interpret the second chart with caution due to the small sample size of around 50-60 members of military households per month, which causes high volatility. We use a longer moving average here to account for this (see methodology statement). Still, in the month following the visit that group registered a tracking high for net favorability of India. 

These visits should be seen in the broader context of strengthening regional cooperation to counter China’s more aggressive posture. For example, India's Act East policy seeks to strengthen ties with other Indo-Pacific nations in an implicit hedge against China. There has been an increase in the level of cooperation both between regional countries wary of China’s rise and between regional countries and the United States. We anticipate that this trend will continue, and will be reflected in broader public opinion as competition intensifies. 

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